Jagiellonia
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs
Play-offs Thu, Aug 20 · 17:00
Stadion Miejski, Białystok
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel2,054 kmRest days6.9 · 21.9Matches / 14d2 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Jagiellonia—%
Draw—%
Saburtalo—%
Weather (Białystok)
No weather data yet
RefereeRicardo De Burgos
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 91
Team strength
Jagiellonia
Saburtalo
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
6
26
AttackIn forecast
7
28
DefenceIn forecast
7
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSaburtalo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
JagielloniaSaburtalo
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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—
Pass accuracyContext
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—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
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1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
—
90%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.88
ShotsContext
—
6.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
46%
On target shareContext
—
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
—
62%
Box shareContext
—
12%
ConversionContext
—
1.83
OffsidesContext
—
14.75
Shots allowedContext
—
3.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
4.89
BlocksContext
—
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
84%
Save rateContext
—
53%
PossessionIn forecast
—
431
PassesContext
—
357
Accurate passesContext
—
83%
Pass accuracyContext
—
6.99
Team ratingContext
—
12.78
FoulsContext
—
13.22
Fouls sufferedContext
—
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Jagiellonia
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km3,569 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Saburtalo
Rest21.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel2,054 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Jagiellonia |
Saburtalo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027, 13 Aug | 21.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 29 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 2,054 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,569 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Jagiellonia
Confirmed XI
50S. Abramowicz(G)
23Guilherme Montóia
4Y. Kobayashi
5Bernardo Vital
15N. Wojtuszek
19A. Klynge
6T. Romanczuk
11Jesús Imaz
7K. Szmyt
99N. Prelec
10J. Agbonifo
Saburtalo
Confirmed XI
31G. Makaridze(G)
40G. Kobuladze
25A. Amisulashvili
4V. Selimović
5J. Jinjolava
8B. Kardava
14A. Alhassan
6N. Dadiani
10Zviad Natchkebia
19N. Sikharulashvili
17S. Ende
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Jagiellonia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Saburtalo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
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Home / Away this season
Jagiellonia · Home
No home games yet this season.
Saburtalo · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Jagiellonia | Saburtalo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Jagiellonia | Saburtalo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Jagiellonia | Saburtalo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 6.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Jagiellonia | Saburtalo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 11.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.13 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 8.38 | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.90 | 6.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ricardo De Burgos 91 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.31league 5.00
Red cards0.23league 1.00
Cards 5+44%league 100%
Fouls22.9league 28.0
Penalties0.24league 0.00
Home wins48%league 0%
JagielloniaNo previous matches with this referee.
SaburtaloNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
JagielloniaSaburtaloJagiellonia10 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
3
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Saburtalo10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.