Juventus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Juventus were slight favourites.
Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 63). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Juventus. Juventus had 8 days of rest, AC Milan 9 and had to travel 125 km. Weather to note: heat stress.
Away travel125 kmRest days8 · 9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Juventus53%
Draw23%
AC Milan24%
Juventus49%
Draw25%
AC Milan27%
Juventus53%
Draw23%
AC Milan24%
Juventus45%
Draw25%
AC Milan30%
Juventus52%
Draw24%
AC Milan24%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
Heat stress
28°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 2 km/h
- Humidity 55%
Referee · ItalyMaurizio Mariani
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 116
Team strength
Juventus
AC Milan
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
66
57
AttackIn forecast
72
76
DefenceIn forecast
69
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
JuventusAC Milan
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.93
xGVia Att/Def
2.18
0.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
-0.43
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
100%
Scored inContext
100%
100%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
20.50
ShotsContext
17.50
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
27%
On target shareContext
26%
11.50
Shots in the boxContext
—
56%
Box shareContext
—
7%
ConversionContext
11%
1.00
OffsidesContext
—
7.50
Shots allowedContext
8.50
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
—
BlocksContext
3.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
100%
Save rateContext
100%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
507
PassesContext
528
444
Accurate passesContext
463
88%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.07
Team ratingContext
7.04
20.50
FoulsContext
8.50
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
0.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
-0.41
Goals minus xGContext
-0.31
80%
Scored inContext
60%
70%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
17.10
ShotsContext
12.20
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
30%
On target shareContext
27%
10.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
65%
Box shareContext
59%
7%
ConversionContext
8%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.57
10.10
Shots allowedContext
11.90
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.63
BlocksContext
3.30
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
85%
Save rateContext
74%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
495
PassesContext
461
428
Accurate passesContext
400
87%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.00
FoulsContext
9.80
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Juventus
WW
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 70 · 6 pts vs 3.6 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Juventus |
AC Milan |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Serie A 2026-2027, 29 Aug | 9Serie A 2026-2027, 28 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 125 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 251 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Juventus
Confirmed XI
25G. Vicario(G)
2M. Çelik
26J. Lucumí
3Bremer
15P. Kalulu
12Douglas Luiz
5M. Locatelli
17Kerim Alajbegović
31N. González
7Francisco Conceição
9R. Kolo Muani
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
5K. De Winter
34Mario Gila
2P. Estupiñán
80Y. Musah
14L. Modrić
22Diego Moreira
56A. Saelemaekers
12A. Rabiot
9Gonçalo Ramos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Juventus
Absences are shown before kick-off
AC Milan
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Juventus-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- AC Milan+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Juventus · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
AC Milan · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
2 Juventus wins6 draws2 AC Milan wins
Goals per game0.40 – 0.40
Over 2.50%
Both scored10%
Clean sheets70% · 70%
- 26 Apr 2026AC Milan0–0Juventus
- 5 Oct 2025Juventus0–0AC Milan
- 18 Jan 2025Juventus2–0AC Milan
- 23 Nov 2024AC Milan0–0Juventus
- 27 Apr 2024Juventus0–0AC Milan
- 22 Oct 2023AC Milan0–1Juventus
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Juventus | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.50 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Juventus | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 1.70 | 2.30 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 10% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Juventus | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 11.00 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 13.50 | 5.50 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 2.50 | 3.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Juventus | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 2.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 6.10 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.90 | 3.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Maurizio Mariani Italy · 116 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.88league 3.15
Red cards0.19league 0.00
Cards 5+37%league 15%
Fouls23.9league 22.8
Penalties0.23league 0.00
Home wins46%league 41%
Juventus13 with this referee
Record7-4-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W19 Apr 26H · Bologna2–01
- W14 Mar 26A · Udinese1–01
- W25 Jan 26H · Napoli3–01
- W16 Feb 25H · Inter1–01
- D29 Dec 24H · Fiorentina2–23
AC Milan11 with this referee
Record5-3-3
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds2
- D18 Feb 26H · Como1–13
- D8 Jan 26H · Genoa1–13
- L27 Feb 25A · Bologna1–22
- W22 Sep 24A · Inter2–11
- D27 Apr 24A · Juventus0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Juventus2 games · scored 3 · conceded 0
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
AC Milan2 games · scored 4 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 12 · conceded 5
3
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
