Juventus vs Cremonese – 12 Jan 2026

Serie A Gameweek 20 Mon, Jan 12 · 19:45 Allianz Stadium, Torino

Juventus 5th · 36 pts · 19 played WWWDW

5–0Full time

Cremonese 13th · 22 pts · 19 played LDLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Juventus were clear favourites.

Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 23). Juventus had 6 days of rest, Cremonese 4.1 and had to travel 183 km.

Away travel183 kmRest days6 · 4.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Juventus73%

Draw18%

Cremonese9%

Expected goals 2.25 – 0.67

Juventus74%

Draw17%

Cremonese9%

Expected goals 2.42 – 0.74

Juventus73%

Draw18%

Cremonese9%

Expected goals 2.25 – 0.67

Juventus66%

Draw21%

Cremonese13%

Expected goals 2.01 – 0.75

Juventus74%

Draw17%

Cremonese9%

Expected goals 2.42 – 0.74

Over 2.5 56% Both score 44% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Torino)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyErmanno Feliciani

Cards per match 3.2
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 35

Team strength

Juventus

Cremonese

71 L90 StrengthIn forecast 23

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

57 AttackIn forecast 16

76 DefenceIn forecast 30

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Juventus

Attack—

Defense risk—

Cremonese

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Juventus

Cremonese

1.42 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.05

0.84 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.21

1.53 xGVia Att/Def 0.99

0.82 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.53

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

79% Scored inContext 63%

37% Clean sheetsContext 26%

15.47 ShotsContext 8.32

5.53 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.21

36% On target shareContext 39%

9.63 Shots in the boxContext 5.00

61% Box shareContext 57%

9% ConversionContext 13%

1.87 OffsidesContext 2.29

10.05 Shots allowedContext 16.32

2.94 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.16

2.83 BlocksContext 4.89

2.18 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.22

71% Save rateContext 78%

57% PossessionIn forecast 45%

511 PassesContext 370

443 Accurate passesContext 289

87% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.76

12.53 FoulsContext 13.11

10.11 Fouls sufferedContext 12.37

1.42 Yellow cardsContext 2.11

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 19 and 19 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.96 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

0.90 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

100% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.10 ShotsContext 9.40

6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

40% On target shareContext 34%

10.90 Shots in the boxContext 5.60

63% Box shareContext 58%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.25 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.20 Shots allowedContext 16.60

3.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

3.33 BlocksContext 5.11

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.10

83% Save rateContext 77%

55% PossessionIn forecast 47%

516 PassesContext 389

449 Accurate passesContext 306

87% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.76

12.70 FoulsContext 14.60

8.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Juventus

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km471 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Cremonese

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel183 km358 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Juventus	Cremonese
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Serie A 2025-2026, 6 Jan	4.1Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	183 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	471 km	358 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	5	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Juventus Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

16M. Di Gregorio(G)

27A. Cambiaso 6L. Kelly 3Bremer 15P. Kalulu

19K. Thuram 5M. Locatelli

10K. Yıldız 21F. Miretti 22W. McKennie

30J. David

Cremonese Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1E. Audero(G)

15M. Bianchetti 6F. Baschirotto 24F. Terracciano

3G. Pezzella 11D. Johnsen 38W. Bondo 33A. Grassi 7A. Zerbin

10J. Vardy 90F. Bonazzoli

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Juventus Absences are shown before kick-off

Cremonese Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Juventus+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Cremonese+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Juventus · Home 2.11points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 5-4-0
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 0.89

Cremonese · Away 1.20points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-4
Scored: 0.90
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Juventus	Cremonese
Sassuolo	W 3–0 A	W 3–2 H
Lecce	D 1–1 H	W 2–0 H
Pisa	W 2–0 A	L 0–1 A
AS Roma	W 2–1 H	L 1–3 H
Bologna	W 1–0 A	W 3–1 A
Napoli	L 1–2 A	L 0–2 H
Cagliari	W 2–1 H	D 2–2 H
Fiorentina	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 A
Torino	D 0–0 H	L 0–1 A
Udinese	W 3–1 H	D 1–1 H
Lazio	L 0–1 A	D 0–0 A
Como	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 A
AC Milan	D 0–0 H	W 2–1 A
Atalanta	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 H
Verona	D 1–1 A	D 0–0 A
Inter	W 4–3 H	L 1–4 A
Genoa	W 1–0 A	W 2–0 A
Parma	W 2–0 H	D 0–0 H
Points	33 of 54 · 1.83 per game	22 of 54 · 1.22 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

3 Juventus wins0 draws0 Cremonese wins

Goals per game1.67 – 0.33 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets67% · 0%

1 Nov 2025Cremonese1–2Juventus
14 May 2023Juventus2–0Cremonese
4 Jan 2023Cremonese0–1Juventus

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Juventus	Cremonese	Forecast
Scored per game	1.42	1.05
Conceded per game	0.84	1.21
Match goals	2.26	2.26	2.93
Over 1.5	74%	68%
Over 2.5	37%	37%	56%
Over 3.5	11%	26%
Both teams scored	53%	53%	44%
Clean sheets	37%	26%
Failed to score	21%	37%
Games	19	19

	Juventus	Cremonese	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	0.90
Conceded per game	0.70	1.30
Match goals	2.20	2.20	2.93
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	56%
Over 3.5	0%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	44%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	10%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Juventus	Cremonese	League
Corners
Corners won	5.06	3.33
Corners conceded	4.12	6.39
Match total	9.18	9.72	8.75
Over 8.5	47% 8/17	67% 12/18
Over 9.5	47% 8/17	44% 8/18
Over 10.5	29% 5/17	28% 5/18
Cards
Cards	1.47	2.16
Opponent cards	2.47	1.89
Match total	3.94	4.05	4.04
Over 3.5	58% 11/19	58% 11/19
Over 4.5	47% 9/19	32% 6/19

	Juventus	Cremonese	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	4.00
Corners conceded	4.22	6.22
Match total	10.22	10.22	8.75
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.40	2.00
Opponent cards	2.50	2.00
Match total	3.90	4.00	4.04
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ermanno Feliciani Italy · 35 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.17league 3.89

Red cards0.03league 0.18

Cards 5+17%league 38%

Fouls22.7league 25.8

Penalties0.23league 0.31

Home wins54%league 37%

Juventus1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W28 Oct 23H · Verona1–03

Cremonese2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.1.5 · 0.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

W1 Dec 25A · Bologna3–12
L4 Oct 25A · Inter1–41

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.