Juventus vs Fiorentina – 17 May 2026

Serie A Gameweek 37 Sun, May 17 · 11:00 Allianz Stadium, Torino

Juventus 3rd · 68 pts · 36 played WWDDW

0–2Full time

Fiorentina 15th · 38 pts · 36 played WDDLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Juventus were clear favourites.

Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 45). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Juventus. Juventus had 7.6 days of rest, Fiorentina 6.9 and had to travel 317 km.

Away travel317 kmRest days7.6 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Juventus64%

Draw22%

Fiorentina14%

Expected goals 1.94 – 0.79

Juventus61%

Draw23%

Fiorentina17%

Expected goals 1.95 – 0.92

Juventus64%

Draw22%

Fiorentina14%

Expected goals 1.94 – 0.79

Juventus57%

Draw25%

Fiorentina18%

Expected goals 1.73 – 0.88

Juventus65%

Draw21%

Fiorentina14%

Expected goals 2.05 – 0.84

Over 2.5 51% Both score 47% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Torino)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyDavide Massa

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 115

Team strength

Juventus

Fiorentina

72 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

57 AttackIn forecast 42

76 DefenceIn forecast 34

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Juventus

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Juventus

Fiorentina

1.64 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.06

0.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.36

1.67 xGVia Att/Def 1.37

0.86 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.31

81% Scored inContext 69%

44% Clean sheetsContext 25%

16.03 ShotsContext 12.72

5.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.46

36% On target shareContext 26%

10.33 Shots in the boxContext 8.06

64% Box shareContext 62%

10% ConversionContext 8%

2.21 OffsidesContext 2.20

10.06 Shots allowedContext 12.58

2.82 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.62

3.09 BlocksContext 3.31

2.19 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.06

76% Save rateContext 68%

58% PossessionIn forecast 52%

516 PassesContext 421

448 Accurate passesContext 357

87% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.82

11.97 FoulsContext 11.94

9.94 Fouls sufferedContext 15.28

1.39 Yellow cardsContext 2.22

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 36 and 36 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.76 xGVia Att/Def 1.08

0.87 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.28

90% Scored inContext 60%

70% Clean sheetsContext 40%

16.60 ShotsContext 11.30

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

33% On target shareContext 28%

11.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

67% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 7%

2.67 OffsidesContext 1.71

9.90 Shots allowedContext 12.80

2.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.44 BlocksContext 3.60

2.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

86% Save rateContext 72%

59% PossessionIn forecast 48%

513 PassesContext 405

443 Accurate passesContext 339

87% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.04 Team ratingContext 6.81

10.40 FoulsContext 11.60

9.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Juventus

Rest7.6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,006 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fiorentina

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel317 km468 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Juventus	Fiorentina
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.6Serie A 2025-2026, 9 May	6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 10 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	317 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,006 km	468 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.4	5.4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Juventus Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

16M. Di Gregorio(G)

27A. Cambiaso 6L. Kelly 3Bremer 15P. Kalulu

8T. Koopmeiners 5M. Locatelli

10K. Yıldız 22W. McKennie 7Francisco Conceição

9D. Vlahović

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Fiorentina Confirmed XI

4-3-3

43David de Gea(G)

21R. Gosens 6L. Ranieri 5M. Pongračić 2Dodô

4M. Brescianini 44N. Fagioli 27C. Ndour

19M. Solomon 91R. Piccoli 65F. Parisi

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Juventus Absences are shown before kick-off

Fiorentina Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Juventus+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Fiorentina+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Juventus · Home 2.06points per game · 18 home games

W-D-L: 10-7-1
Scored: 1.94
Conceded: 0.78

Fiorentina · Away 1.00points per game · 18 away games

W-D-L: 4-6-8
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.61

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Juventus	Fiorentina
Lecce	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H	D 1–1 AL 0–1 H
Verona	D 1–1 HD 1–1 A	W 1–0 AL 1–2 H
AC Milan	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A
Bologna	W 2–0 HW 1–0 A	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H
Atalanta	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H	L 0–2 A
Genoa	W 2–0 HW 1–0 A	D 0–0 HD 2–2 A
Sassuolo	D 1–1 HW 3–0 A	D 0–0 HL 1–3 A
Udinese	W 1–0 AW 3–1 H	L 0–3 AW 5–1 H
Pisa	W 4–0 HW 2–0 A	W 1–0 HD 0–0 A
AS Roma	D 3–3 AW 2–1 H	L 0–4 AL 1–2 H
Como	L 0–2 HL 0–2 A	W 2–1 AL 1–2 H
Inter	L 2–3 AW 4–3 H	D 1–1 HL 0–3 A
Lazio	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A	W 1–0 HD 2–2 A
Parma	W 4–1 AW 2–0 H	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
Napoli	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A	L 1–2 AL 1–3 H
Cagliari	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A
Cremonese	W 5–0 HW 2–1 A	W 4–1 AW 1–0 H
Torino	D 0–0 H	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A
Points	67 of 105 · 1.91 per game	37 of 105 · 1.06 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

4 Juventus wins3 draws2 Fiorentina wins

Goals per game0.89 – 1.00 Over 2.522% Both scored33% Clean sheets44% · 22%

22 Nov 2025Fiorentina1–1Juventus
16 Mar 2025Fiorentina3–0Juventus
29 Dec 2024Juventus2–2Fiorentina
7 Apr 2024Juventus1–0Fiorentina
5 Nov 2023Fiorentina0–1Juventus
12 Feb 2023Juventus1–0Fiorentina

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Juventus	Fiorentina	Forecast
Scored per game	1.64	1.06
Conceded per game	0.83	1.36
Match goals	2.47	2.42	2.73
Over 1.5	72%	69%
Over 2.5	39%	53%	51%
Over 3.5	22%	25%
Both teams scored	44%	58%	47%
Clean sheets	44%	25%
Failed to score	19%	31%
Games	36	36

	Juventus	Fiorentina	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	0.80
Conceded per game	0.50	1.00
Match goals	2.10	1.80	2.73
Over 1.5	60%	50%
Over 2.5	20%	30%	51%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	30%	30%	47%
Clean sheets	70%	50%
Failed to score	10%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Juventus	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	5.38	4.46
Corners conceded	3.68	4.54
Match total	9.06	9.00	8.67
Over 8.5	44% 15/34	57% 20/35
Over 9.5	35% 12/34	49% 17/35
Over 10.5	26% 9/34	26% 9/35
Cards
Cards	1.44	2.33
Opponent cards	2.08	2.25
Match total	3.52	4.58	3.87
Over 3.5	53% 19/36	69% 25/36
Over 4.5	36% 13/36	58% 21/36

	Juventus	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	3.90
Corners conceded	3.60	4.10
Match total	9.20	8.00	8.67
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.60
Opponent cards	1.80	2.00
Match total	3.40	4.60	3.87
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 115 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.54league 3.69

Red cards0.29league 0.19

Cards 5+52%league 34%

Fouls25.1league 24.7

Penalties0.20league 0.28

Home wins37%league 39%

Juventus11 with this referee

Record7-3-1 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds2

W6 Apr 26H · Genoa2–04
L17 Jan 26A · Cagliari0–11
W14 Dec 25A · Bologna1–01
D10 May 25A · Lazio1–15
W18 Jan 25H · AC Milan2–00

Fiorentina4 with this referee

Record1-2-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.8 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

D11 Jan 26H · AC Milan1–14
D10 Mar 24H · AS Roma2–22
W30 Oct 22A · Spezia2–13
L24 Apr 22A · Salernitana1–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.