Juventus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Juventus were clear favourites.
Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 35). Juventus had 15.8 days of rest, Genoa 16.8 and had to travel 124 km.
Away travel124 kmRest days15.8 · 16.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Juventus66%
Draw21%
Genoa13%
Juventus65%
Draw21%
Genoa14%
Juventus66%
Draw21%
Genoa13%
Juventus59%
Draw24%
Genoa18%
Juventus67%
Draw20%
Genoa13%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDavide Massa
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 110
Team strength
Juventus
Genoa
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
57
AttackIn forecast
23
76
DefenceIn forecast
44
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
JuventusGenoa
1.73
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.97
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
0.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
80%
Scored inContext
67%
37%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
16.27
ShotsContext
11.30
6.03
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.87
37%
On target shareContext
34%
10.47
Shots in the boxContext
7.17
63%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.08
OffsidesContext
1.82
9.93
Shots allowedContext
12.60
2.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.93
BlocksContext
4.59
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.15
71%
Save rateContext
68%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
518
PassesContext
374
449
Accurate passesContext
301
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.23
FoulsContext
12.60
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.80
1.23
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.03
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
2.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
90%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
18.10
ShotsContext
12.80
6.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
37%
On target shareContext
31%
13.89
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
72%
Box shareContext
61%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.00
12.20
Shots allowedContext
11.30
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.00
BlocksContext
3.90
3.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
63%
Save rateContext
69%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
493
PassesContext
407
419
Accurate passesContext
338
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.30
FoulsContext
11.10
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Juventus
Rest15.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genoa
Rest16.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel124 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Juventus |
Genoa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.8Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Mar | 16.8Serie A 2025-2026, 20 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 124 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Juventus
Confirmed XI
1M. Perin(G)
27A. Cambiaso
6L. Kelly
3Bremer
15P. Kalulu
5M. Locatelli
10K. Yıldız
19K. Thuram
22W. McKennie
7Francisco Conceição
30J. David
Genoa
Confirmed XI
16J. Bijlow(G)
3Aarón Martín
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
27A. Marcandalli
77M. Ellertsson
9Vítinha
17R. Malinovskyi
32M. Frendrup
10J. Messias
29L. Colombo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Juventus
Absences are shown before kick-off
Genoa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Juventus+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Genoa-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Juventus · Home
2.00points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-6-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.87
Genoa · Away
1.00points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-6
- Scored
- 1.21
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Juventus | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Udinese | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Pisa | W 4–0 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| AS Roma | D 3–3 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Como | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Inter | L 2–3 AW 4–3 H | L 0–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Lazio | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Parma | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Napoli | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Cagliari | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H | W 3–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Cremonese | W 5–0 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Lecce | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Bologna | W 1–0 A | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Fiorentina | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Torino | D 0–0 H | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A |
| AC Milan | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Verona | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Points | 51 of 87 · 1.76 per game | 33 of 87 · 1.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 Juventus wins2 draws1 Genoa wins
Goals per game1.29 – 0.43
Over 2.529%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets71% · 14%
- 31 Aug 2025Genoa0–1Juventus
- 29 Mar 2025Juventus1–0Genoa
- 28 Sep 2024Genoa0–3Juventus
- 17 Mar 2024Juventus0–0Genoa
- 15 Dec 2023Genoa1–1Juventus
- 6 May 2022Genoa2–1Juventus
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Juventus | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.73 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.97 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.60 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 57% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 57% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 37% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 33% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Juventus | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.70 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Juventus | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 3.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.68 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 8.93 | 8.88 | 8.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 12/28 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 10/28 | 38% 10/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 7/28 | 19% 5/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.87 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.57 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.44 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 15/30 | 77% 23/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 10/30 | 43% 13/30 | |
| Juventus | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.30 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 8.70 | 8.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.10 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 110 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.45league 3.73
Red cards0.29league 0.19
Cards 5+50%league 35%
Fouls25.0league 25.1
Penalties0.18league 0.30
Home wins36%league 39%
Juventus10 with this referee
Record6-3-1
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.1
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- L17 Jan 26A · Cagliari0–11
- W14 Dec 25A · Bologna1–01
- D10 May 25A · Lazio1–15
- W18 Jan 25H · AC Milan2–00
- W22 Dec 24A · Monza2–11
Genoa5 with this referee
Record1-3-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.4
Pens for · against1 · 2
- L7 Feb 26H · Napoli2–32
- D23 Aug 25H · Lecce0–02
- D2 Mar 25H · Empoli1–11
- D15 Dec 23H · Juventus1–12
- W27 Oct 23H · Salernitana1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Juventus30 games · scored 52 · conceded 29
7
4
0-15
5
3
16-30
7
6
31-45
8
5
46-60
12
4
61-75
13
7
76-90
Genoa30 games · scored 36 · conceded 42
5
5
0-15
4
6
16-30
5
7
31-45
3
8
46-60
8
9
61-75
11
7
76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 22 · conceded 19
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
6
46-60
4
3
61-75
6
5
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
