Juventus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were slight favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 69). Juventus had 13 days of rest, Inter 12.9 and had to travel 125 km.
Away travel125 kmRest days13 · 12.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Juventus31%
Draw28%
Inter41%
Juventus32%
Draw27%
Inter41%
Juventus31%
Draw28%
Inter41%
Juventus25%
Draw27%
Inter48%
Juventus32%
Draw27%
Inter41%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAndrea Colombo
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 52
Team strength
Juventus
Inter
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
84
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
57
AttackIn forecast
91
76
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisInter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
JuventusInter
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
0.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
0.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
-0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+1.37
100%
Scored inContext
100%
100%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
19.00
ShotsContext
16.50
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
29%
On target shareContext
39%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
13.00
59%
Box shareContext
81%
8%
ConversionContext
18%
—
OffsidesContext
3.00
7.00
Shots allowedContext
11.00
1.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.00
BlocksContext
3.00
1.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
67%
Save rateContext
78%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
472
PassesContext
531
404
Accurate passesContext
472
86%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
7.15
Team ratingContext
7.17
12.00
FoulsContext
15.00
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
5.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.50
0.50
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
0.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.57
90%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.80
ShotsContext
12.00
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
33%
On target shareContext
38%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
62%
Box shareContext
74%
10%
ConversionContext
17%
2.38
OffsidesContext
3.40
10.00
Shots allowedContext
15.50
2.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
3.60
BlocksContext
4.30
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
79%
Save rateContext
70%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
448
PassesContext
505
384
Accurate passesContext
438
86%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.14
Team ratingContext
7.04
12.90
FoulsContext
10.70
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Juventus
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km248 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Inter
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel125 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Juventus |
Inter |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13Serie A 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 12.9Serie A 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 125 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 248 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Juventus
Confirmed XI
16M. Di Gregorio(G)
6L. Kelly
3Bremer
4F. Gatti
22W. McKennie
19K. Thuram
5M. Locatelli
8T. Koopmeiners
15P. Kalulu
10K. Yıldız
9D. Vlahović
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
95A. Bastoni
15F. Acerbi
25M. Akanji
30Carlos Augusto
22H. Mkhitaryan
20H. Çalhanoğlu
23N. Barella
2D. Dumfries
10L. Martínez
9M. Thuram
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Juventus
Absences are shown before kick-off
Inter
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Juventus+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Inter+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Juventus · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Inter · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Juventus wins3 draws2 Inter wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.00
Over 2.513%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets38% · 25%
- 16 Feb 2025Juventus1–0Inter
- 27 Oct 2024Inter4–4Juventus
- 4 Feb 2024Inter1–0Juventus
- 26 Nov 2023Juventus1–1Inter
- 19 Mar 2023Inter0–1Juventus
- 6 Nov 2022Juventus2–0Inter
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Juventus | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 4.00 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Juventus | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 4.00 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Juventus | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 9.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 12.50 | 8.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 0.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.00 | 3.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Juventus | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.22 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 10.78 | 9.20 | 8.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.10 | 3.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andrea Colombo Italy · 52 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.87league 3.57
Red cards0.21league 0.10
Cards 5+60%league 33%
Fouls24.3league 25.7
Penalties0.13league 0.14
Home wins40%league 43%
Juventus8 with this referee
Record4-2-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W25 May 25A · Venezia3–23
- D6 Apr 25A · AS Roma1–11
- W23 Feb 25A · Cagliari1–01
- W28 Sep 24A · Genoa3–01
- D5 May 24A · AS Roma1–12
Inter6 with this referee
Record5-0-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L20 Apr 25A · Bologna0–13
- W23 Nov 24A · Verona5–01
- W22 Apr 24A · AC Milan2–13
- W28 Feb 24H · Atalanta4–02
- W19 Aug 23H · Monza2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Juventus2 games · scored 3 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Inter2 games · scored 6 · conceded 2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 15 · conceded 7
3
1
0-15
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 20 · conceded 16
3
1
0-15
5
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
