Juventus vs Parma – 29 Aug 2026

Serie A Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 29 · 19:45 Allianz Stadium, Torino

Juventus 11th · 3 pts · 1 played W

2–0Full time

Parma 15th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Juventus were clear favourites.

Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Juventus. Juventus had 6.1 days of rest, Parma 7 and had to travel 210 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel210 kmRest days6.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Juventus70%

Draw18%

Parma12%

Expected goals 2.20 – 0.77

Juventus67%

Draw19%

Parma13%

Expected goals 2.14 – 0.83

Juventus71%

Draw18%

Parma11%

Expected goals 2.23 – 0.75

Juventus63%

Draw21%

Parma16%

Expected goals 1.97 – 0.86

Juventus69%

Draw19%

Parma12%

Expected goals 2.16 – 0.77

Over 2.5 57% Both score 48% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Torino)

26°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 5 km/h
Humidity 51%

Warm

Referee · ItalyFrancesco Fourneau

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 49

Team strength

Juventus

Parma

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 32

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 28

57 AttackIn forecast 20

76 DefenceIn forecast 33

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Juventus

Attack—

Defense risk—

Parma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Juventus

Parma

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.66 xGVia Att/Def 0.70

0.77 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

-0.56 Goals minus xGContext +0.00

80% Scored inContext 60%

60% Clean sheetsContext 30%

16.80 ShotsContext 8.80

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.56

32% On target shareContext 26%

11.50 Shots in the boxContext 5.56

69% Box shareContext 57%

7% ConversionContext 8%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.40 Shots allowedContext 12.30

2.78 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

3.67 BlocksContext 3.40

2.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

83% Save rateContext 73%

60% PossessionIn forecast 42%

498 PassesContext 349

429 Accurate passesContext 288

86% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.83

11.40 FoulsContext 9.50

10.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Juventus W

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,190 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 62 · 3 pts vs 1.7 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected

W23 AugA · Frosinone1–02.0 xPts

Parma L

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel210 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 33 · 0 pts vs 1.9 for an average club · -1.5 vs expected

L22 AugH · Cagliari0–11.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Juventus	Parma
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Serie A 2026-2027, 23 Aug	7Serie A 2026-2027, 22 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	210 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,190 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	8	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Juventus Confirmed XI

4-4-2

25G. Vicario(G)

2M. Çelik 26J. Lucumí 3Bremer 15P. Kalulu

13J. Boga 12Douglas Luiz 5M. Locatelli 7Francisco Conceição

30J. David 9R. Kolo Muani

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Parma Confirmed XI

4-4-2

40E. Corvi(G)

14E. Valeri 72Dominik Drobnic 37Mariano Troilo 15E. Delprato

16L. Keita 10Adrián Bernabé 32C. Ordoñez 27Sascha Britschgi

19E. Touré 76S. Lontani

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Juventus Absences are shown before kick-off

Parma Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Juventus-0.7 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
Parma+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Juventus · Home No home games yet this season.

Parma · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 Juventus wins1 draws1 Parma wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 25%

1 Feb 2026Parma1–4Juventus
24 Aug 2025Juventus2–0Parma
23 Apr 2025Parma1–0Juventus
30 Oct 2024Juventus2–2Parma

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Juventus	Parma	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.00
Conceded per game	0.00	1.00
Match goals	1.00	1.00	2.97
Over 1.5	0%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	57%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	48%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	Juventus	Parma	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	0.70
Conceded per game	0.60	1.10
Match goals	1.70	1.80	2.97
Over 1.5	60%	50%
Over 2.5	10%	10%	57%
Over 3.5	10%	10%
Both teams scored	30%	30%	48%
Clean sheets	60%	30%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Juventus	Parma	League
Corners
Corners won	12.00	3.00
Corners conceded	3.00	2.00
Match total	15.00	5.00	8.50
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	0.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	4.00	2.00	3.43
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Juventus	Parma	League
Corners
Corners won	6.90	3.20
Corners conceded	3.60	5.90
Match total	10.50	9.10	8.50
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.30
Opponent cards	1.70	1.50
Match total	3.60	2.80	3.43
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Francesco Fourneau Italy · 49 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.37league 3.43

Red cards0.10league 0.00

Cards 5+51%league 14%

Fouls25.6league 24.1

Penalties0.29league 0.00

Home wins47%league 36%

Juventus4 with this referee

Record4-0-0 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

W1 Feb 26A · Parma4–13
W3 May 23H · Lecce2–12
W6 Mar 22H · Spezia1–03
W30 Nov 21A · Salernitana2–01

Parma5 with this referee

Record0-2-3 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.6 Pens for · against2 · 1

L1 Feb 26H · Juventus1–41
L13 Sep 25A · Cagliari0–21
D8 Mar 25H · Torino2–24
D19 Jan 25H · Venezia1–12
L30 Sep 24H · Cagliari2–33

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.