Kasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Kasimpasa were slight favourites.
Kasimpasa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (19 vs 12). Absences weigh more on Kasimpasa. Kasimpasa had 27.8 days of rest, Antalyaspor 29.8 and had to travel 481 km.
Away travel481 kmRest days27.8 · 29.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Kasimpasa50%
Draw26%
Antalyaspor24%
Kasimpasa51%
Draw25%
Antalyaspor24%
Kasimpasa51%
Draw26%
Antalyaspor24%
Kasimpasa42%
Draw27%
Antalyaspor30%
Kasimpasa50%
Draw26%
Antalyaspor24%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeHalil Umut Meler
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 25
Team strength
Kasimpasa
Antalyaspor
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
12
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
21
AttackIn forecast
11
32
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KasimpasaAntalyaspor
0.82
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.94
1.41
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.82
0.75
xGVia Att/Def
0.73
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
59%
Scored inContext
71%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
10.12
ShotsContext
8.00
3.07
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.63
25%
On target shareContext
43%
6.25
Shots in the boxContext
5.44
57%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.13
12.06
Shots allowedContext
14.12
4.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.25
BlocksContext
2.88
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.18
72%
Save rateContext
64%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
320
PassesContext
341
248
Accurate passesContext
272
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.71
14.47
FoulsContext
10.94
12.29
Fouls sufferedContext
14.19
2.06
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
0.66
xGVia Att/Def
0.68
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
50%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.80
ShotsContext
7.50
3.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.89
31%
On target shareContext
35%
6.11
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
63%
Box shareContext
63%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.33
12.80
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.00
BlocksContext
2.80
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
73%
Save rateContext
56%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
319
PassesContext
338
249
Accurate passesContext
272
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.63
13.00
FoulsContext
10.30
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
14.44
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kasimpasa
Rest27.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Antalyaspor
Rest29.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel481 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kasimpasa |
Antalyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 27.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 21 Dec | 29.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 481 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
21G. Frimpong
20N. Opoku
4Adem Arous
2C. Winck Neto
26K. Demirbay
16A. Baldursson
34F. Diabaté
12A. Ben Ouanes
71İ. Kahveci
17K. Kanatsızkuş
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
1Julián(G)
3K. Paal
4H. Türkmen
89V. Sarı
7B. Balcı
6S. Dikmen
23Jesper Ceesay
26N. Storm
88D. Šarić
10A. Ömür
22S. van de Streek
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kasimpasa
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Antalyaspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kasimpasa-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Antalyaspor+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Kasimpasa · Home
0.50points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-4-4
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.50
Antalyaspor · Away
1.22points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-4
- Scored
- 0.78
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Kasimpasa | Antalyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | L 0–3 A | L 1–4 H |
| Genclerbirligi | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Kocaelispor | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–3 H | L 0–4 H |
| Alanyaspor | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Goztepe | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Kayserispor | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Besiktas | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Eyüpspor | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Rizespor | W 2–1 A | L 2–5 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Samsunspor | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 2–3 H | L 2–3 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 15 of 48 · 0.94 per game | 12 of 48 · 0.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Kasimpasa wins2 draws2 Antalyaspor wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 40%
- 9 Aug 2025Antalyaspor2–1Kasimpasa
- 22 Feb 2025Antalyaspor2–1Kasimpasa
- 22 Sep 2024Kasimpasa0–0Antalyaspor
- 12 May 2024Kasimpasa3–1Antalyaspor
- 20 Dec 2023Antalyaspor0–0Kasimpasa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kasimpasa | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.82 | 0.94 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.41 | 1.82 | |
| Match goals | 2.24 | 2.76 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 59% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 59% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 29% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Kasimpasa | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.20 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kasimpasa | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 3.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.13 | 5.12 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 8.83 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 9/15 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 7/15 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 4/15 | 29% 5/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.18 | 2.41 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.24 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 4.42 | 4.70 | 4.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 11/17 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 6/17 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Kasimpasa | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 10.22 | 8.40 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.60 | 4.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Halil Umut Meler Türkiye · 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.52league 4.44
Red cards0.20league 0.25
Cards 5+52%league 46%
Fouls24.5league 25.7
Penalties0.32league 0.26
Home wins28%league 37%
Kasimpasa1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D5 May 25H · Trabzonspor1–14
AntalyasporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kasimpasa17 games · scored 14 · conceded 24
6
0-15
1
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
Antalyaspor17 games · scored 16 · conceded 31
2
6
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
6
31-45
3
6
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
8
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 7 · conceded 16
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 9 · conceded 23
1
6
0-15
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
