Kasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Kasimpasa
16th · 16 pts · 21 played
LDLLL
3–2Full time
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 12 pts · 21 played
LLLLW
Our take
Kasimpasa were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Fatih Karagümrük. Kasimpasa had 7 days of rest, Fatih Karagümrük 9.2 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days7 · 9.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Kasimpasa43%
Draw28%
Fatih Karagümrük29%
Kasimpasa49%
Draw26%
Fatih Karagümrük25%
Kasimpasa43%
Draw28%
Fatih Karagümrük28%
Kasimpasa36%
Draw29%
Fatih Karagümrük36%
Kasimpasa43%
Draw28%
Fatih Karagümrük29%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeBatuhan Kolak
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 10
Team strength
KasimpasaFatih Karagümrük
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
12
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
21
AttackIn forecast
13
32
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KasimpasaFatih Karagümrük
0.76
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
0.77
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
57%
Scored inContext
57%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.90
ShotsContext
10.14
2.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.16
25%
On target shareContext
28%
6.10
Shots in the boxContext
5.48
59%
Box shareContext
54%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.68
11.33
Shots allowedContext
14.43
3.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.95
3.21
BlocksContext
3.15
2.94
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.05
71%
Save rateContext
65%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
335
PassesContext
356
263
Accurate passesContext
279
79%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.64
15.10
FoulsContext
13.76
13.05
Fouls sufferedContext
14.48
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.05
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.69
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
40%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.50
ShotsContext
8.90
2.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
27%
On target shareContext
32%
5.44
Shots in the boxContext
5.30
59%
Box shareContext
58%
6%
ConversionContext
9%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.70
11.00
Shots allowedContext
14.10
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
2.89
BlocksContext
2.80
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
66%
Save rateContext
66%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
342
PassesContext
353
269
Accurate passesContext
280
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.73
14.90
FoulsContext
13.70
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kasimpasa
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,700 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest9.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kasimpasa |
Fatih Karagümrük |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 Feb | 9.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,700 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
21G. Frimpong
4Adem Arous
50Rodrigo Becão
2C. Winck Neto
26K. Demirbay
16A. Baldursson
19A. Benedyczak
12A. Ben Ouanes
71İ. Kahveci
23C. Tosun
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
25F. Mladenović
3Igor Lichnovsky
4D. Biraschi
47Ricardo Esgaio
8B. Özcan
5M. Kranevitter
72Baris Kalayci
23S. Larsson
80S. Babicka
70Serginho
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kasimpasa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fatih Karagümrük
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kasimpasa-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Fatih Karagümrük+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Kasimpasa · Home
0.50points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-5-5
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 1.30
Fatih Karagümrük · Away
0.40points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-8
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Kasimpasa | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 1–2 AL 2–3 H | L 0–2 H |
| Samsunspor | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A | L 2–3 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | L 3–4 H |
| Antalyaspor | D 0–0 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Galatasaray | L 0–3 A | L 1–3 HL 0–3 A |
| Genclerbirligi | D 0–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Kocaelispor | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–3 H | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Alanyaspor | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Goztepe | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Kayserispor | L 2–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Besiktas | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Eyüpspor | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Rizespor | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 13 of 60 · 0.65 per game | 12 of 60 · 0.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Kasimpasa wins1 draws0 Fatih Karagümrük wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 13 Sep 2025Fatih Karagümrük0–1Kasimpasa
- 16 Feb 2024Kasimpasa1–1Fatih Karagümrük
- 1 Oct 2023Fatih Karagümrük2–3Kasimpasa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kasimpasa | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.76 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 2.71 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 48% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 48% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 43% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Kasimpasa | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.40 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kasimpasa | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.95 | 3.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.53 | 5.43 | |
| Match total | 9.48 | 9.00 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 10/19 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 8/19 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 26% 5/19 | 29% 6/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.24 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.19 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.43 | 4.24 | 4.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 15/21 | 71% 15/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 7/21 | 33% 7/21 | |
| Kasimpasa | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.70 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.00 | 4.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Batuhan Kolak 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.20league 4.45
Red cards0.20league 0.23
Cards 5+30%league 47%
Fouls25.7league 26.0
Penalties0.30league 0.26
Home wins30%league 37%
KasimpasaNo previous matches with this referee.
Fatih Karagümrük1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L22 Aug 25H · Goztepe0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kasimpasa21 games · scored 16 · conceded 29
6
0-15
2
5
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
3
7
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük21 games · scored 18 · conceded 39
2
5
0-15
3
4
16-30
4
7
31-45
1
6
46-60
2
11
61-75
6
6
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 5 · conceded 14
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 8 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
