Kasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Kasimpasa were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Kasimpasa. Kasimpasa had 5.1 days of rest, Konyaspor 6 and had to travel 463 km.
Away travel463 kmRest days5.1 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Kasimpasa48%
Draw26%
Konyaspor27%
Kasimpasa48%
Draw25%
Konyaspor27%
Kasimpasa49%
Draw26%
Konyaspor26%
Kasimpasa40%
Draw27%
Konyaspor33%
Kasimpasa48%
Draw25%
Konyaspor26%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeDavut Dakul Celik
Team strength
Kasimpasa
Konyaspor
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
21
AttackIn forecast
13
32
DefenceIn forecast
31
56
Form indexContext
12
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKonyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KasimpasaKonyaspor
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.36
100%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.80
ShotsContext
11.80
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
32%
On target shareContext
29%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
52%
Box shareContext
69%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.00
Shots allowedContext
14.80
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
3.80
BlocksContext
3.80
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.40
72%
Save rateContext
76%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
344
PassesContext
393
271
Accurate passesContext
327
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.73
14.20
FoulsContext
12.80
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
90%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.30
ShotsContext
11.30
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
33%
On target shareContext
32%
4.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
53%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.57
12.20
Shots allowedContext
15.90
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.40
2.78
BlocksContext
3.80
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.60
71%
Save rateContext
72%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
330
PassesContext
369
260
Accurate passesContext
301
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.74
13.60
FoulsContext
13.80
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kasimpasa
DWDDW
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km704 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 56 · 9 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · +3.2 vs expected
Konyaspor
LLLLW
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel463 km1,587 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Form 12 · 3 pts vs 8.6 for an average club · -2.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kasimpasa |
Konyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 13 Sep | 6Süper Lig 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 463 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 704 km | 1,587 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21 | 22.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
5J. Jessen
27M. Ilie
14Kevin Mouanga
2C. Winck Neto
26K. Demirbay
51Elson Mendes
7A. Kol
19M. Rafferty
50G. Yalçın
9A. Benedyczak
Konyaspor
Confirmed XI
13B. Güngördü(G)
26A. Masuaku
4A. Demirbağ
22R. Baniya
5U. Yazğılı
77M. İbrahimoğlu
8M. Jevtović
7Diogo Gonçalves
66R. Tóth
9D. Türüç
11J. Muleka
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kasimpasa
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Konyaspor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kasimpasa-1.3 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Konyaspor+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Kasimpasa · Home
1.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Konyaspor · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Kasimpasa | Konyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Kasimpasa wins3 draws3 Konyaspor wins
Goals per game1.17 – 2.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 8 Mar 2026Konyaspor1–1Kasimpasa
- 5 Oct 2025Kasimpasa1–1Konyaspor
- 19 Jan 2025Konyaspor3–3Kasimpasa
- 10 Aug 2024Kasimpasa2–3Konyaspor
- 13 Apr 2024Kasimpasa0–2Konyaspor
- 25 Nov 2023Konyaspor2–0Kasimpasa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kasimpasa | Konyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Kasimpasa | Konyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.80 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kasimpasa | Konyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 2.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.00 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 7.80 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 3/4 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.80 | 3.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Kasimpasa | Konyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 2.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 7.80 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.50 | 3.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Kasimpasa5 games · scored 7 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
61-75
3
1
76-90
Konyaspor5 games · scored 4 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
4
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Konyaspor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
