Kasimpasa
Attack+14%
Defense risk−11%
Our take
Kasimpasa were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Kasimpasa. Kasimpasa were without M. Ben Ouanes. Kasimpasa had 8.7 days of rest, Samsunspor 7.9 and had to travel 619 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel619 kmRest days8.7 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Kasimpasa44%
Draw26%
Samsunspor30%
Kasimpasa41%
Draw27%
Samsunspor32%
Kasimpasa44%
Draw26%
Samsunspor29%
Kasimpasa37%
Draw27%
Samsunspor37%
Kasimpasa45%
Draw26%
Samsunspor29%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
14°CLight rain
- Precipitation 0.5 mm
- Wind 16 km/h
- Humidity 74%
Referee · TürkiyeFatih Tokail
- Cards per match 5.7
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 3
Team strength
Kasimpasa
Samsunspor
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
21
AttackIn forecast
15
32
DefenceIn forecast
18
31
Form indexContext
5
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSamsunspor
Attack+5%
Defense risk−18%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
KasimpasaSamsunspor
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
1.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.14
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
86%
Scored inContext
43%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
10.71
ShotsContext
13.29
3.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
29%
On target shareContext
23%
5.43
Shots in the boxContext
7.71
50%
Box shareContext
54%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.25
15.00
Shots allowedContext
14.57
4.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.86
4.29
BlocksContext
3.43
3.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.71
78%
Save rateContext
63%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
332
PassesContext
498
259
Accurate passesContext
422
78%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.63
14.71
FoulsContext
12.14
12.14
Fouls sufferedContext
12.14
2.86
Yellow cardsContext
0.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.70
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
90%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.20
ShotsContext
12.70
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
31%
On target shareContext
30%
5.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
54%
Box shareContext
56%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.83
13.60
Shots allowedContext
15.60
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.78
BlocksContext
4.00
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
77%
Save rateContext
66%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
324
PassesContext
466
254
Accurate passesContext
392
78%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.72
14.90
FoulsContext
12.30
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kasimpasa
DDWDL
Rest8.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 31 · 6 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected
Samsunspor
LLLLL
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel619 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 5 · 0 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · -6.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kasimpasa |
Samsunspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 9 Oct | 7.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 10 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 619 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
45A. Karapo
27M. Ilie
4Adem Arous
2C. Winck Neto
26K. Demirbay
16A. Baldursson
7A. Kol
51Elson Mendes
17J. Rak-Sakyi
9A. Benedyczak
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tómasson
34G. Guarino
22Y. Çift
2J. Mendes
4Elliot Watt
19O. Øhlenschlæger
11E. Kılınç
20Y. Kayan
10T. Coulibaly
18M. Bayo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kasimpasa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −6.7% · Defence line −12.5% of weighted minutes
- MID M. Ben Ouanes Starter 6.65 Att −6.7% Def −4.9%
- DEF A. Karapo Rotation 6.84 Def −4.7%
- DEF K. Çörekçi Rotation 6.73 Def −3.0%
Samsunspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −10.2% · Defence line −3.1% of weighted minutes
- MID C. Yüksel Rotation 6.89 Att −5.3% Def −3.1%
- ATT Jaures Assoumou Rotation 6.80 Att −4.9%
Total impact vs full squads
- Kasimpasa-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Samsunspor+0.4 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Kasimpasa · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Samsunspor · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Kasimpasa | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| Çorum FK | W 1–0 A | L 1–5 H |
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Kasimpasa wins1 draws3 Samsunspor wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets50% · 33%
- 30 Jan 2026Kasimpasa0–1Samsunspor
- 17 Sep 2025Samsunspor0–0Kasimpasa
- 29 Mar 2025Samsunspor0–2Kasimpasa
- 26 Oct 2024Kasimpasa1–4Samsunspor
- 27 Apr 2024Kasimpasa1–0Samsunspor
- 9 Dec 2023Samsunspor4–2Kasimpasa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kasimpasa | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 2.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 3.00 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 43% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 29% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Kasimpasa | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.20 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kasimpasa | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.83 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.33 | 5.29 | |
| Match total | 11.16 | 9.29 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.86 | 0.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 2.86 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Kasimpasa | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.78 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.56 | 9.00 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 3.50 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Fatih Tokail Türkiye · 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.33league 3.82
Red cards0.33league 0.18
Cards 5+67%league 40%
Fouls31.0league 24.3
Penalties0.33league 0.35
Home wins33%league 47%
Kasimpasa2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W22 Aug 26A · Çorum FK1–03
- D24 May 25A · Gazişehir Gaziantep2–25
SamsunsporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kasimpasa7 games · scored 8 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Samsunspor7 games · scored 6 · conceded 15
1
5
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
1
7
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
