Kayserispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Alanyaspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 16). Kayserispor had 7.1 days of rest, Alanyaspor 4.9 and had to travel 392 km.
Away travel392 kmRest days7.1 · 4.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Kayserispor36%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor37%
Kayserispor37%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor36%
Kayserispor36%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor36%
Kayserispor29%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor44%
Kayserispor36%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor37%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kayseri)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeErdem Mertoglu
- Cards per match 11.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
Kayserispor
Alanyaspor
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
16
AttackIn forecast
18
17
DefenceIn forecast
24
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KayserisporAlanyaspor
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.93
2.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
73%
Scored inContext
67%
7%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.13
ShotsContext
11.40
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
36%
On target shareContext
32%
6.07
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
54%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.89
13.20
Shots allowedContext
10.47
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.87
3.42
BlocksContext
2.89
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.93
69%
Save rateContext
72%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
357
PassesContext
392
285
Accurate passesContext
325
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.82
13.27
FoulsContext
12.53
13.13
Fouls sufferedContext
15.87
2.73
Yellow cardsContext
2.07
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
70%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.60
ShotsContext
13.10
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
37%
On target shareContext
33%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
54%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
5%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.67
13.20
Shots allowedContext
10.00
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
4.00
BlocksContext
2.50
4.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
67%
Save rateContext
72%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
369
PassesContext
412
298
Accurate passesContext
346
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.83
14.10
FoulsContext
12.20
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
16.30
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kayserispor
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,225 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alanyaspor
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel392 km1,293 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kayserispor |
Alanyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 6 Dec | 4.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 392 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,225 km | 1,293 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kayserispor
Confirmed XI
25B. Bayazıt(G)
28R. Civelek
4S. Denswil
15Y. Ait Bennasser
30A. Opoku
8L. Bénes
24D. Toköz
7Miguel Cardoso
22I. Tuci
20Carlos Mané
9G. Onugkha
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
1M. Taşkıran(G)
50Ü. Akdağ
5F. Aliti
3Nuno Lima
11Ruan
20F. Aksoy
42G. Makouta
94F. Hadërgjonaj
16U. Hwang
14I. Hagi
22Uchenna Ogundu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kayserispor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Alanyaspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kayserispor-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Alanyaspor+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Kayserispor · Home
0.71points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-4
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 2.57
Alanyaspor · Away
1.00points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Kayserispor | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Eyüpspor | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Rizespor | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 0–3 H | D 0–0 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–4 A | D 2–2 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 3–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Samsunspor | L 1–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–4 A | D 1–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Besiktas | L 0–4 H | W 2–0 H |
| Antalyaspor | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Goztepe | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Kocaelispor | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Galatasaray | L 0–4 H | L 0–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 12 of 42 · 0.86 per game | 14 of 42 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Kayserispor wins1 draws1 Alanyaspor wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 3 May 2025Alanyaspor1–1Kayserispor
- 8 Dec 2024Kayserispor2–0Alanyaspor
- 16 Mar 2024Alanyaspor1–0Kayserispor
- 6 Nov 2023Kayserispor1–0Alanyaspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kayserispor | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.93 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.13 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 1.93 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 93% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 33% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 47% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 53% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 7% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 33% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Kayserispor | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 1.70 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 20% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kayserispor | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.54 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.85 | 3.92 | |
| Match total | 9.39 | 8.67 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 8/13 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 6/13 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 4/13 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.07 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.20 | 4.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 12/15 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 53% 8/15 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Kayserispor | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.38 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 8.38 | 9.56 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.90 | 4.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Erdem Mertoglu Türkiye · 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards11.00league 4.49
Red cards0.00league 0.26
Cards 5+100%league 48%
Fouls25.0league 26.3
Penalties0.00league 0.27
Home wins100%league 35%
KayserisporNo previous matches with this referee.
AlanyasporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kayserispor15 games · scored 15 · conceded 32
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
9
31-45
3
7
46-60
5
5
61-75
5
6
76-90
Alanyaspor15 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
3
76-90
Kayserispor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 24
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
7
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
5
61-75
3
2
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
