Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor – 22 Feb 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 23 Sun, Feb 22 · 10:30 RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Kayseri

Kayserispor 17th · 16 pts · 22 played LLLLD

1–0Full time

Antalyaspor 14th · 23 pts · 22 played DWDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Kayserispor were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Kayserispor. Kayserispor had 6.9 days of rest, Antalyaspor 8.7 and had to travel 467 km.

Away travel467 kmRest days6.9 · 8.7Matches / 14d2 · 1

Kayserispor44%

Draw28%

Antalyaspor28%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.08

Kayserispor43%

Draw27%

Antalyaspor30%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20

Kayserispor46%

Draw27%

Antalyaspor27%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.07

Kayserispor37%

Draw28%

Antalyaspor34%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.21

Kayserispor45%

Draw27%

Antalyaspor28%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.11

Over 2.5 46% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Kayseri)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeHalil Umut Meler

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 31

Team strength

Kayserispor

Antalyaspor

14 L90 StrengthIn forecast 14

13 Current StrengthIn forecast 13

16 AttackIn forecast 11

17 DefenceIn forecast 14

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Kayserispor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Antalyaspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Kayserispor

Antalyaspor

0.77 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.95 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.59

0.97 xGVia Att/Def 0.74

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

59% Scored inContext 68%

14% Clean sheetsContext 23%

10.86 ShotsContext 8.14

3.59 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.43

33% On target shareContext 40%

6.09 Shots in the boxContext 5.33

55% Box shareContext 62%

7% ConversionContext 12%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.10

14.50 Shots allowedContext 13.73

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.59

3.78 BlocksContext 3.32

4.32 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

71% Save rateContext 65%

47% PossessionIn forecast 44%

349 PassesContext 330

278 Accurate passesContext 260

80% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.74

12.36 FoulsContext 11.73

12.95 Fouls sufferedContext 14.57

2.59 Yellow cardsContext 2.32

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 22 and 22 games

0.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

0.85 xGVia Att/Def 0.68

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

-0.45 Goals minus xGContext +0.22

40% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.20 ShotsContext 7.70

2.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.67

28% On target shareContext 31%

5.20 Shots in the boxContext 4.78

50% Box shareContext 59%

4% ConversionContext 12%

2.56 OffsidesContext 2.44

15.70 Shots allowedContext 11.70

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

4.44 BlocksContext 3.30

4.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30

80% Save rateContext 66%

43% PossessionIn forecast 44%

339 PassesContext 311

270 Accurate passesContext 238

80% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.78

11.60 FoulsContext 11.80

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 16.00

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Kayserispor

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,452 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Antalyaspor

Rest8.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel467 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Kayserispor	Antalyaspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 15 Feb	8.7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 13 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	467 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,452 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	7.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Kayserispor Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

25B. Bayazıt(G)

23L. Carole 4S. Denswil 6S. Güler 30J. Brenet

24D. Toköz

7Miguel Cardoso 8L. Bénes 33F. Soyalp 10João Mendes

9G. Onugkha

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Antalyaspor Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1Julián(G)

3K. Paal 30L. Giannetti 89V. Sarı 4H. Türkmen

23Jesper Ceesay

26N. Storm 88D. Šarić 6S. Dikmen 70D. Sinik

22S. van de Streek

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Kayserispor Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Antalyaspor Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Kayserispor-1.4 pp
Draw+0.4 pp
Antalyaspor+1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Kayserispor · Home 0.60points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 1-3-6
Scored: 0.70
Conceded: 2.30

Antalyaspor · Away 1.09points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-5
Scored: 0.64
Conceded: 0.91

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Kayserispor	Antalyaspor
Goztepe	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H	L 1–2 H
Kocaelispor	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A	L 1–2 A
Galatasaray	L 0–4 AL 0–4 H	L 1–4 H
Istanbul Basaksehir	L 0–3 HD 1–1 A	L 0–4 H
Besiktas	L 0–1 AL 0–4 H	L 1–3 H
Konyaspor	D 1–1 A	D 0–0 A
Alanyaspor	D 0–0 H	D 0–0 A
Eyüpspor	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 A
Rizespor	W 1–0 A	L 2–5 H
Gazişehir Gaziantep	L 0–3 H	L 2–3 A
Fenerbahce	L 2–4 A	L 0–2 A
Kasimpasa	W 3–2 H	D 0–0 AW 2–1 H
Fatih Karagümrük	D 2–2 A	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H
Samsunspor	L 1–3 H	W 3–1 HW 2–1 A
Trabzonspor	L 0–4 A	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A
Genclerbirligi	D 1–1 H	W 2–1 HW 1–0 A
Points	15 of 63 · 0.71 per game	22 of 63 · 1.05 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 Kayserispor wins3 draws1 Antalyaspor wins

Goals per game1.20 – 1.20 Over 2.520% Both scored80% Clean sheets0% · 20%

20 Sep 2025Antalyaspor1–1Kayserispor
12 May 2025Kayserispor3–1Antalyaspor
15 Dec 2024Antalyaspor2–0Kayserispor
29 Jan 2024Kayserispor1–1Antalyaspor
2 Sep 2023Antalyaspor1–1Kayserispor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Kayserispor	Antalyaspor	Forecast
Scored per game	0.77	1.00
Conceded per game	1.95	1.59
Match goals	2.73	2.59	2.51
Over 1.5	82%	68%
Over 2.5	50%	55%	46%
Over 3.5	36%	27%
Both teams scored	55%	59%	51%
Clean sheets	14%	23%
Failed to score	41%	32%
Games	22	22

	Kayserispor	Antalyaspor	Forecast
Scored per game	0.40	0.90
Conceded per game	1.50	1.20
Match goals	1.90	2.10	2.51
Over 1.5	60%	60%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	46%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	30%	60%	51%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	60%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Kayserispor	Antalyaspor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.45	3.91
Corners conceded	5.00	5.73
Match total	9.45	9.64	9.33
Over 8.5	70% 14/20	59% 13/22
Over 9.5	45% 9/20	59% 13/22
Over 10.5	30% 6/20	41% 9/22
Cards
Cards	2.64	2.41
Opponent cards	1.91	2.32
Match total	4.55	4.73	4.74
Over 3.5	73% 16/22	64% 14/22
Over 4.5	50% 11/22	50% 11/22

	Kayserispor	Antalyaspor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	3.60
Corners conceded	5.00	6.90
Match total	9.00	10.50	9.33
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.90
Opponent cards	1.80	2.10
Match total	4.10	4.00	4.74
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Halil Umut Meler Türkiye · 31 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.48league 4.49

Red cards0.23league 0.22

Cards 5+48%league 48%

Fouls24.0league 26.0

Penalties0.26league 0.26

Home wins26%league 38%

Kayserispor

No previous matches with this referee.

Antalyaspor1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D18 Jan 26A · Kasimpasa0–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.