Kayserispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Galatasaray were clear favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 19). Galatasaray usually keep the ball (61% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Kayserispor had 7 days of rest, Galatasaray 9 and had to travel 613 km.
Away travel613 kmRest days7 · 9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Kayserispor14%
Draw20%
Galatasaray66%
Kayserispor14%
Draw21%
Galatasaray64%
Kayserispor14%
Draw20%
Galatasaray66%
Kayserispor10%
Draw17%
Galatasaray73%
Kayserispor15%
Draw21%
Galatasaray64%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kayseri)
No weather data yet
RefereeAlper Akarsu
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.47
- Matches 17
Team strength
Kayserispor
Galatasaray
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
73
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
16
AttackIn forecast
57
17
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGalatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KayserisporGalatasaray
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.00
—
xGVia Att/Def
2.82
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.35
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
—
Scored inContext
100%
—
Clean sheetsContext
100%
—
ShotsContext
20.00
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
—
On target shareContext
30%
—
Shots in the boxContext
13.00
—
Box shareContext
66%
—
ConversionContext
15%
—
OffsidesContext
1.50
—
Shots allowedContext
5.00
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
—
BlocksContext
1.50
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
—
Save rateContext
100%
—
PossessionIn forecast
66%
—
PassesContext
521
—
Accurate passesContext
468
—
Pass accuracyContext
90%
—
Team ratingContext
7.38
—
FoulsContext
12.00
—
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
—
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
—
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.20
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
2.40
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.62
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
90%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
80%
7.90
ShotsContext
20.40
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.20
46%
On target shareContext
35%
5.20
Shots in the boxContext
14.40
65%
Box shareContext
70%
18%
ConversionContext
14%
2.75
OffsidesContext
2.67
16.40
Shots allowedContext
7.10
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.63
4.78
BlocksContext
2.00
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.71
77%
Save rateContext
95%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
347
PassesContext
500
278
Accurate passesContext
437
80%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.90
Team ratingContext
7.40
11.40
FoulsContext
11.30
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kayserispor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,225 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Galatasaray
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel613 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kayserispor |
Galatasaray |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 17 Aug | 9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 15 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 613 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,225 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kayserispor
Confirmed XI
25B. Bayazıt(G)
23L. Carole
4S. Denswil
37G. Jung
11G. Sazdağı
24D. Toköz
30A. Opoku
8L. Bénes
10João Mendes
28R. Civelek
7Miguel Cardoso
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
19G. Güvenç(G)
4I. Jakobs
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
7R. Sallai
8Gabriel Sara
34L. Torreira
17E. Elmalı
11Y. Akgün
10L. Sané
45V. Osimhen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kayserispor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Galatasaray
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kayserispor+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Galatasaray-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Kayserispor · Home
No home games yet this season.
Galatasaray · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Kayserispor wins1 draws3 Galatasaray wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.50
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 50%
- 18 May 2025Galatasaray3–0Kayserispor
- 22 Dec 2024Kayserispor1–5Galatasaray
- 15 Jan 2024Galatasaray2–1Kayserispor
- 12 Aug 2023Kayserispor0–0Galatasaray
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kayserispor | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.00 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 2 |
| Kayserispor | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.00 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kayserispor | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 8.50 | 9.44 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 3.50 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Kayserispor | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 7.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.89 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 10.89 | 10.00 | 9.44 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 3.50 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alper Akarsu 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.76league 3.84
Red cards0.06league 0.37
Cards 5+59%league 37%
Fouls24.1league 26.3
Penalties0.47league 0.37
Home wins47%league 47%
Kayserispor1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L7 Jan 24H · Sivasspor1–34
Galatasaray1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W4 Jan 25H · Goztepe2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kayserispor1 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Galatasaray2 games · scored 6 · conceded 0
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Kayserispor10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 28 · conceded 2
5
0-15
7
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
4
61-75
8
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
