Kayserispor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Kayserispor13.8%fair odds 7.24
Draw20.3%fair odds 4.92
Galatasaray65.9%fair odds 1.52
Expected goals0.88 – 2.15total 3.03
Likeliest score0–211.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Galatasaray
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Kayserispor ↓ · Galatasaray → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.9 | 11.1 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Kayserispor goals, columns Galatasaray goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–211.1%8.99
- 0–19.9%10.13
- 1–29.8%10.17
- 1–19.6%10.38
- 0–38.0%12.55
- 1–37.0%14.20
- 0–05.3%18.85
- 2–24.3%23.01
- 0–44.3%23.36
- 2–14.0%24.72
Winning margin
1.1%
Kayserispor by 3+
fair 92.16
3.4%
Kayserispor by 2
fair 29.45
9.3%
Kayserispor by 1
fair 10.73
20.3%
Draw
fair 4.92
23.4%
Galatasaray by 1
fair 4.28
20.1%
Galatasaray by 2
fair 4.98
22.4%
Galatasaray by 3+
fair 4.45
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Kayserispor goals
41%0
37%1
16%2
5%3
1%4+
Galatasaray goals
12%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
17%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor win | 13.8% | 14.5% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 20.3% | 21.2% | -0.9 pp |
| Galatasaray win | 65.9% | 64.3% | +1.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.4% | 56.2% | +2.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.3% | 51.4% | +0.9 pp |
| Expected goals Kayserispor | 0.88 | 0.88 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Galatasaray | 2.15 | 2.06 | +0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Kayserispor win13.8%7.24
- Draw20.3%4.92
- Galatasaray win65.9%1.52
- Double chance Kayserispor or draw34.1%2.93
- Double chance Kayserispor or Galatasaray79.7%1.26
- Double chance Galatasaray or draw86.2%1.16
- Draw no bet Kayserispor17.3%5.77
- Draw no bet Galatasaray82.7%1.21
Goals
- Over 0.594.7%1.06
- Over 1.581.1%1.23
- Over 2.558.4%1.71
- Over 3.536.0%2.78
- Over 4.519.0%5.26
- Under 1.518.9%5.28
- Under 2.541.6%2.40
- Under 3.564.0%1.56
Both teams to score
- Yes52.3%1.91
- No47.7%2.10
- Yes and over 2.542.7%2.34
- Kayserispor win and yes7.4%13.43
- Draw and yes15.0%6.66
- Galatasaray win and yes29.9%3.35
Team goals
- Kayserispor over 0.558.7%1.70
- Kayserispor over 1.522.2%4.51
- Kayserispor over 2.56.0%16.60
- Galatasaray over 0.588.3%1.13
- Galatasaray over 1.563.3%1.58
- Galatasaray over 2.536.4%2.75
- Kayserispor clean sheet11.7%8.57
- Galatasaray clean sheet41.3%2.42
- Kayserispor win to nil6.4%15.73
- Galatasaray win to nil36.0%2.78
Handicap
- Kayserispor −1.54.5%22.32
- Kayserispor −2.51.1%92.16
- Galatasaray +1.595.5%1.05
- Galatasaray +2.598.9%1.01
- Galatasaray −1.542.5%2.35
- Kayserispor +1.557.5%1.74
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored19
Favourite won47.4%
Avg chance given to result43.9%
1X2 Brier0.523
Over 2.5 called right52.6%
BTTS called right36.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 38.2% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 6 | 45.5% | 33.3% |
| 50–60% | 5 | 55.1% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 64.3% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 78.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 6 of 19 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5139 | 0.4723 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.8% | 46.6% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 6 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 19 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.