Kayserispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Kayserispor were slight favourites.
Kayserispor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (17 vs 11). Absences weigh more on Kayserispor. Kayserispor had 4 days of rest, Genclerbirligi 8.1 and had to travel 262 km.
Away travel262 kmRest days4 · 8.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Kayserispor49%
Draw26%
Genclerbirligi24%
Kayserispor52%
Draw25%
Genclerbirligi23%
Kayserispor52%
Draw26%
Genclerbirligi23%
Kayserispor42%
Draw28%
Genclerbirligi31%
Kayserispor49%
Draw26%
Genclerbirligi25%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kayseri)
No weather data yet
RefereeYigit Arslan
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.60
- Matches 5
Team strength
Kayserispor
Genclerbirligi
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
11
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
16
AttackIn forecast
13
17
DefenceIn forecast
16
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenclerbirligi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KayserisporGenclerbirligi
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.61
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
67%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
9.50
ShotsContext
10.00
3.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.83
33%
On target shareContext
28%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.33
55%
Box shareContext
56%
7%
ConversionContext
7%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.67
13.17
Shots allowedContext
14.83
6.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
2.00
BlocksContext
5.25
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.17
68%
Save rateContext
62%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
342
PassesContext
300
266
Accurate passesContext
236
78%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.62
Team ratingContext
6.66
12.33
FoulsContext
12.33
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
70%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
9.10
ShotsContext
10.00
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.83
40%
On target shareContext
28%
5.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.33
57%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
2.43
OffsidesContext
1.67
15.80
Shots allowedContext
14.83
6.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.38
BlocksContext
5.25
4.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.17
71%
Save rateContext
62%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
341
PassesContext
300
268
Accurate passesContext
236
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.66
11.10
FoulsContext
12.33
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kayserispor
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km934 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genclerbirligi
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel262 km1,320 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kayserispor |
Genclerbirligi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 24 Sep | 8.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 262 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 934 km | 1,320 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kayserispor
Confirmed XI
25B. Bayazıt(G)
3A. Burak
23L. Carole
4S. Denswil
28R. Civelek
24D. Toköz
7Miguel Cardoso
8L. Bénes
33F. Soyalp
30A. Opoku
9G. Onugkha
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
18E. Erentürk(G)
23M. Hanousek
2T. da Silva
6D. Goutas
13Pedro Pereira
53D. Varešanović
15A. Dele-Bashiru
35O. Ülgün
70F. Tongya
29M. Niang
11G. Gürpüz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kayserispor
Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genclerbirligi
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kayserispor-2.4 pp
- Draw+0.6 pp
- Genclerbirligi+1.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Kayserispor · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 3.00
Genclerbirligi · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Kayserispor | Genclerbirligi |
|---|---|---|
| Antalyaspor | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Kayserispor | Genclerbirligi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.17 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Kayserispor | Genclerbirligi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.17 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kayserispor | Genclerbirligi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.17 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 10.67 | 8.83 | 9.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 3.83 | 4.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Kayserispor | Genclerbirligi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 10.90 | 8.83 | 9.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.83 | 4.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 33% 2/6 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yigit Arslan 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.80league 4.48
Red cards0.60league 0.26
Cards 5+40%league 48%
Fouls26.6league 26.3
Penalties0.60league 0.24
Home wins60%league 36%
KayserisporNo previous matches with this referee.
GenclerbirligiNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kayserispor6 games · scored 4 · conceded 12
1
0-15
16-30
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Genclerbirligi6 games · scored 4 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
16-30
1
4
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Kayserispor10 games · scored 9 · conceded 19
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
61-75
2
7
76-90
Genclerbirligi6 games · scored 4 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
16-30
1
4
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
