Kayserispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Kasimpasa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (22 vs 15). Absences weigh more on Kayserispor. Kayserispor had 8.9 days of rest, Kasimpasa 6.9 and had to travel 613 km.
Away travel613 kmRest days8.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Kayserispor36%
Draw27%
Kasimpasa37%
Kayserispor37%
Draw27%
Kasimpasa36%
Kayserispor37%
Draw27%
Kasimpasa35%
Kayserispor29%
Draw27%
Kasimpasa44%
Kayserispor35%
Draw27%
Kasimpasa37%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kayseri)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeKadir Saglam
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 8
Team strength
Kayserispor
Kasimpasa
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
16
AttackIn forecast
21
17
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KayserisporKasimpasa
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
70%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.40
ShotsContext
11.50
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.78
36%
On target shareContext
22%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
60%
Box shareContext
59%
7%
ConversionContext
8%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.75
12.70
Shots allowedContext
11.80
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
2.14
BlocksContext
3.33
4.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
69%
Save rateContext
74%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
368
PassesContext
322
293
Accurate passesContext
251
80%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.60
Team ratingContext
6.78
13.70
FoulsContext
15.30
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
70%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.40
ShotsContext
11.50
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.78
36%
On target shareContext
22%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
60%
Box shareContext
59%
7%
ConversionContext
8%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.75
12.70
Shots allowedContext
11.80
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
2.14
BlocksContext
3.33
4.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
69%
Save rateContext
74%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
368
PassesContext
322
293
Accurate passesContext
251
80%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.60
Team ratingContext
6.78
13.70
FoulsContext
15.30
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kayserispor
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,225 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kasimpasa
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel613 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kayserispor |
Kasimpasa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 24 Oct | 6.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 613 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,225 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kayserispor
Confirmed XI
1O. Piri(G)
23L. Carole
4S. Denswil
5S. Hosseini
28R. Civelek
24D. Toköz
20Carlos Mané
33F. Soyalp
10João Mendes
30A. Opoku
9G. Onugkha
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
21G. Frimpong
41A. Szalai
20N. Opoku
2C. Winck Neto
16A. Baldursson
6Cem Üstündag
9Y. Barası
8Cafú
7M. Fall
77P. Guèye
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kayserispor
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kasimpasa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kayserispor-1.6 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Kasimpasa+1.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Kayserispor · Home
0.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-3
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 2.60
Kasimpasa · Away
1.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Kayserispor | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Samsunspor | L 1–3 H | D 0–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–4 A | L 0–1 H |
| Besiktas | L 0–4 H | D 1–1 H |
| Antalyaspor | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 2 of 15 · 0.40 per game | 5 of 15 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 Kayserispor wins0 draws1 Kasimpasa wins
Goals per game1.75 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 13 Apr 2025Kayserispor1–0Kasimpasa
- 8 Nov 2024Kasimpasa1–2Kayserispor
- 3 Apr 2024Kayserispor0–2Kasimpasa
- 11 Nov 2023Kasimpasa3–4Kayserispor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kayserispor | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.10 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Kayserispor | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.10 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kayserispor | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 5.13 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 10.13 | 9.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 4.50 | 4.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Kayserispor | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 5.13 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 10.13 | 9.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 4.50 | 4.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kadir Saglam Türkiye · 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 4.64
Red cards0.00league 0.29
Cards 5+38%league 53%
Fouls27.3league 26.2
Penalties0.25league 0.28
Home wins38%league 37%
Kayserispor3 with this referee
Record0-3-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D20 Sep 25A · Antalyaspor1–13
- D17 Aug 25A · Istanbul Basaksehir1–11
- D25 May 25H · BB Bodrumspor1–13
KasimpasaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kayserispor10 games · scored 8 · conceded 22
2
0-15
2
16-30
5
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
4
0-15
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Kayserispor10 games · scored 8 · conceded 22
2
0-15
2
16-30
5
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
4
0-15
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
