Kocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Besiktas were slight favourites.
Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Besiktas. Kocaelispor had 7.8 days of rest, Besiktas 5.8 and had to travel 197 km.
Away travel197 kmRest days7.8 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Kocaelispor30%
Draw26%
Besiktas44%
Kocaelispor33%
Draw27%
Besiktas40%
Kocaelispor29%
Draw26%
Besiktas45%
Kocaelispor24%
Draw24%
Besiktas52%
Kocaelispor30%
Draw26%
Besiktas43%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kocaeli)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCihan Aydin
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 16
Team strength
Kocaelispor
Besiktas
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
16
AttackIn forecast
60
32
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBesiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KocaelisporBesiktas
0.91
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.91
1.04
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.26
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.90
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
61%
Scored inContext
91%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
10.39
ShotsContext
15.78
3.39
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.30
33%
On target shareContext
40%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
10.35
60%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.32
OffsidesContext
2.35
10.74
Shots allowedContext
11.96
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.82
3.50
BlocksContext
3.09
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.71
66%
Save rateContext
70%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
365
PassesContext
418
293
Accurate passesContext
345
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.90
14.68
FoulsContext
12.78
13.48
Fouls sufferedContext
11.91
2.26
Yellow cardsContext
2.22
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
2.02
0.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
60%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.50
ShotsContext
19.00
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.20
30%
On target shareContext
43%
7.10
Shots in the boxContext
10.90
63%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.89
OffsidesContext
2.11
9.20
Shots allowedContext
12.70
2.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
3.30
BlocksContext
3.30
2.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
62%
Save rateContext
70%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
406
PassesContext
426
338
Accurate passesContext
352
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.97
15.44
FoulsContext
12.30
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kocaelispor
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,226 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Besiktas
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel197 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kocaelispor |
Besiktas |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 20 Feb | 5.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 22 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 197 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,226 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
35Gökhan Değirmenci(G)
2A. Dijksteel
6H. Smolčić
5B. Balogh
22A. Oğuz
10K. Linetty
14Show
8H. Keïta
75T. Bingöl
19S. Dursun
7Daniel Agyei
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
30E. Destanoğlu(G)
33R. Yılmaz
14O. Uduokhai
12E. Agbadou
62A. Murillo
23K. Asllani
4O. Ndidi
15Junior Olaitan
18V. Černý
11C. Ünder
9H. Oh
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kocaelispor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Besiktas
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kocaelispor+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Besiktas-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Kocaelispor · Home
1.75points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-3
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 0.67
Besiktas · Away
1.73points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-2
- Scored
- 1.91
- Conceded
- 1.36
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Kocaelispor | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| Rizespor | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Kayserispor | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A | L 2–3 H |
| Samsunspor | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | D 3–3 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 2–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Goztepe | D 0–0 A | W 4–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Galatasaray | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–1 A | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Alanyaspor | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Konyaspor | W 3–2 A | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Points | 30 of 66 · 1.36 per game | 40 of 66 · 1.82 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Kocaelispor wins0 draws1 Besiktas wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 29 Sep 2025Besiktas3–1Kocaelispor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kocaelispor | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.91 | 1.91 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.04 | 1.26 | |
| Match goals | 1.96 | 3.17 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 61% | 91% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 65% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 39% | 65% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 39% | 9% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Kocaelispor | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 3.40 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kocaelispor | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.55 | 5.55 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.82 | 4.41 | |
| Match total | 8.37 | 9.96 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 10/22 | 64% 14/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 32% 7/22 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 3/22 | 36% 8/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.35 | 2.39 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.35 | 2.91 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 5.30 | 4.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 16/23 | 83% 19/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 13/23 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Kocaelispor | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 7.90 | 9.50 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.90 | 4.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cihan Aydin Türkiye · 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.81league 4.45
Red cards0.13league 0.22
Cards 5+38%league 46%
Fouls26.4league 26.0
Penalties0.31league 0.26
Home wins31%league 38%
KocaelisporNo previous matches with this referee.
Besiktas3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W20 Dec 25H · Rizespor1–03
- W8 Nov 25A · Antalyaspor3–11
- W1 Jun 25A · BB Bodrumspor4–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kocaelispor23 games · scored 21 · conceded 24
4
0-15
4
16-30
5
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
5
4
61-75
6
8
76-90
Besiktas23 games · scored 44 · conceded 29
9
3
0-15
6
5
16-30
9
5
31-45
6
4
46-60
6
5
61-75
8
7
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 9
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 22 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
7
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
