Kocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Kocaelispor
10th · 37 pts · 32 played
DDDLD
0–1Full time
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 24 pts · 32 played
WLLDW
Our take
Kocaelispor were slight favourites.
Kocaelispor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (22 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Fatih Karagümrük. Kocaelispor had 6 days of rest, Fatih Karagümrük 6 and had to travel 197 km.
Away travel197 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Kocaelispor48%
Draw28%
Fatih Karagümrük24%
Kocaelispor53%
Draw25%
Fatih Karagümrük22%
Kocaelispor49%
Draw28%
Fatih Karagümrük23%
Kocaelispor41%
Draw29%
Fatih Karagümrük29%
Kocaelispor48%
Draw28%
Fatih Karagümrük24%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kocaeli)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAdnan Deniz Kayatepe
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 18
Team strength
KocaelisporFatih Karagümrük
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
13
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
16
AttackIn forecast
13
32
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KocaelisporFatih Karagümrük
0.81
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.88
1.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.66
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
59%
Scored inContext
59%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
9.91
ShotsContext
10.13
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
29%
On target shareContext
31%
6.22
Shots in the boxContext
5.65
63%
Box shareContext
55%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
2.30
OffsidesContext
2.40
10.91
Shots allowedContext
13.69
3.45
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.65
3.61
BlocksContext
3.07
2.52
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.87
66%
Save rateContext
67%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
359
PassesContext
361
287
Accurate passesContext
284
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.69
14.68
FoulsContext
13.22
13.28
Fouls sufferedContext
14.13
2.13
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
-0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
50%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.10
ShotsContext
10.00
2.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
18%
On target shareContext
36%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.78
70%
Box shareContext
56%
6%
ConversionContext
8%
2.11
OffsidesContext
1.80
11.40
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.89
3.80
BlocksContext
3.14
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
65%
Save rateContext
75%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
352
PassesContext
362
280
Accurate passesContext
286
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.80
15.10
FoulsContext
12.60
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kocaelispor
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,309 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel197 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kocaelispor |
Fatih Karagümrük |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 3 May | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 3 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 197 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,309 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
83Serhat Öztaşdelen
21M. Haïdara
6H. Smolčić
2A. Dijksteel
22A. Oğuz
14Show
20Mahamadou Susoho
7Daniel Agyei
98J. Nonge Boende
70C. Keles
19S. Dursun
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
99F. Bekleviç(G)
33Ç. Kurukalıp
3Igor Lichnovsky
4D. Biraschi
47Ricardo Esgaio
6B. Elmaz
5M. Kranevitter
80S. Babicka
8B. Özcan
70Serginho
21T. Çukur
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kocaelispor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fatih Karagümrük
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kocaelispor-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Fatih Karagümrük+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Kocaelispor · Home
1.44points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-5
- Scored
- 0.94
- Conceded
- 0.75
Fatih Karagümrük · Away
0.38points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-12
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.94
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Kocaelispor | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Genclerbirligi | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Goztepe | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Galatasaray | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | L 1–3 HL 0–3 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Alanyaspor | L 0–5 AW 2–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Konyaspor | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Besiktas | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Rizespor | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Kayserispor | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Samsunspor | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H | D 0–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | L 1–3 AL 3–4 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Points | 36 of 93 · 1.16 per game | 23 of 93 · 0.74 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Kocaelispor wins1 draws0 Fatih Karagümrük wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 14 Dec 2025Fatih Karagümrük1–1Kocaelispor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kocaelispor | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.81 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 1.66 | |
| Match goals | 1.94 | 2.53 | 2.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 59% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 28% | 47% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 47% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 41% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Kocaelispor | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 1.90 | 2.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 40% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kocaelispor | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 3.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.93 | 5.23 | |
| Match total | 8.03 | 8.94 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 12/30 | 48% 15/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 9/30 | 42% 13/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 4/30 | 29% 9/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.22 | 1.84 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.19 | 2.19 | |
| Match total | 4.41 | 4.03 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 19/32 | 66% 21/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 15/32 | 28% 9/32 | |
| Kocaelispor | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.22 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 7.22 | 9.22 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.30 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adnan Deniz Kayatepe Türkiye · 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.28league 4.43
Red cards0.11league 0.22
Cards 5+44%league 45%
Fouls26.8league 26.0
Penalties0.44league 0.28
Home wins44%league 41%
Kocaelispor2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L18 Jan 26H · Trabzonspor1–21
- W4 Oct 25H · Eyüpspor1–03
Fatih Karagümrük2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L21 Dec 25A · Alanyaspor0–21
- W9 Nov 25H · Konyaspor2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kocaelispor32 games · scored 26 · conceded 36
1
6
0-15
5
2
16-30
5
6
31-45
2
5
46-60
6
5
61-75
7
12
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük32 games · scored 28 · conceded 53
3
5
0-15
6
8
16-30
6
9
31-45
1
9
46-60
3
15
61-75
9
7
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 5 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
