Kocaelispor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Kocaelispor
10th · 37 pts · 32 played
DDDLD
0–1Full time
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 24 pts · 32 played
WLLDW
Kocaelispor48.5%fair odds 2.06
Draw28.0%fair odds 3.58
Fatih Karagümrük23.6%fair odds 4.25
Expected goals1.45 – 0.93total 2.38
Likeliest score1–113.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Fatih Karagümrük
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Kocaelispor ↓ · Fatih Karagümrük → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Kocaelispor goals, columns Fatih Karagümrük goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%7.61
- 1–012.8%7.84
- 0–09.9%10.08
- 2–09.7%10.29
- 2–19.0%11.06
- 0–18.0%12.57
- 1–25.8%17.21
- 3–04.7%21.31
- 3–14.4%22.90
- 2–24.2%23.76
Winning margin
9.5%
Kocaelispor by 3+
fair 10.51
14.9%
Kocaelispor by 2
fair 6.72
24.1%
Kocaelispor by 1
fair 4.15
28.0%
Draw
fair 3.58
15.2%
Fatih Karagümrük by 1
fair 6.57
6.1%
Fatih Karagümrük by 2
fair 16.27
2.2%
Fatih Karagümrük by 3+
fair 45.86
Goal distribution
Total goals
10%0
21%1
27%2
21%3
12%4
9%5+
Kocaelispor goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Fatih Karagümrük goals
39%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor win | 48.5% | 48.3% | +0.2 pp |
| Draw | 28.0% | 27.8% | +0.2 pp |
| Fatih Karagümrük win | 23.6% | 23.9% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 42.5% | 43.3% | -0.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 47.0% | 47.7% | -0.7 pp |
| Expected goals Kocaelispor | 1.45 | 1.46 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals Fatih Karagümrük | 0.93 | 0.95 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Kocaelispor win48.5%2.06
- Draw28.0%3.58
- Fatih Karagümrük win23.6%4.25
- Double chance Kocaelispor or draw76.4%1.31
- Double chance Kocaelispor or Fatih Karagümrük72.0%1.39
- Double chance Fatih Karagümrük or draw51.5%1.94
- Draw no bet Kocaelispor67.3%1.49
- Draw no bet Fatih Karagümrük32.7%3.06
Goals
- Over 0.590.1%1.11
- Over 1.569.4%1.44
- Over 2.542.5%2.35
- Over 3.521.7%4.61
- Over 4.59.3%10.72
- Under 1.530.6%3.26
- Under 2.557.5%1.74
- Under 3.578.3%1.28
Both teams to score
- Yes47.0%2.13
- No53.0%1.89
- Yes and over 2.533.9%2.95
- Kocaelispor win and yes19.0%5.27
- Draw and yes18.0%5.54
- Fatih Karagümrük win and yes10.0%10.01
Team goals
- Kocaelispor over 0.576.5%1.31
- Kocaelispor over 1.542.5%2.35
- Kocaelispor over 2.517.8%5.61
- Fatih Karagümrük over 0.560.6%1.65
- Fatih Karagümrük over 1.523.9%4.19
- Fatih Karagümrük over 2.56.8%14.70
- Kocaelispor clean sheet39.4%2.54
- Fatih Karagümrük clean sheet23.5%4.26
- Kocaelispor win to nil29.5%3.39
- Fatih Karagümrük win to nil13.6%7.37
Handicap
- Kocaelispor −1.524.4%4.10
- Kocaelispor −2.59.5%10.51
- Fatih Karagümrük +1.575.6%1.32
- Fatih Karagümrük +2.590.5%1.11
- Fatih Karagümrük −1.58.3%12.01
- Kocaelispor +1.591.7%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored288
Favourite won51.0%
Avg chance given to result40.5%
1X2 Brier0.589
Over 2.5 called right54.9%
BTTS called right52.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 44 | 38.1% | 34.1% |
| 40–50% | 118 | 44.3% | 43.2% |
| 50–60% | 72 | 54.9% | 56.9% |
| 60–70% | 33 | 65.2% | 72.7% |
| 70–80% | 17 | 75.4% | 70.6% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 82.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 237 of 288 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5944 | 0.5812 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.2% | 41.4% |
| Favourite won | 51.9% | 52.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 237 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 288 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.