Kocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fenerbahce were slight favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Kocaelispor. Kocaelispor had 9.1 days of rest, Fenerbahce 3.9 and had to travel 197 km.
Away travel197 kmRest days9.1 · 3.9Matches / 14d1 · 3
Kocaelispor22%
Draw24%
Fenerbahce54%
Kocaelispor21%
Draw25%
Fenerbahce55%
Kocaelispor22%
Draw25%
Fenerbahce53%
Kocaelispor17%
Draw22%
Fenerbahce61%
Kocaelispor23%
Draw25%
Fenerbahce52%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kocaeli)
No weather data yet
RefereeAlper Akarsu
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 23
Team strength
Kocaelispor
Fenerbahce
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
16
AttackIn forecast
75
32
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KocaelisporFenerbahce
0.84
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.26
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.89
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.97
0.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.77
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
63%
Scored inContext
89%
37%
Clean sheetsContext
37%
10.11
ShotsContext
17.63
3.42
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.32
34%
On target shareContext
36%
6.11
Shots in the boxContext
10.53
60%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.16
OffsidesContext
2.20
10.68
Shots allowedContext
9.42
3.19
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.05
3.44
BlocksContext
3.93
2.46
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
67%
Save rateContext
79%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
357
PassesContext
482
284
Accurate passesContext
417
80%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.75
Team ratingContext
7.01
13.83
FoulsContext
12.21
13.26
Fouls sufferedContext
13.37
2.32
Yellow cardsContext
2.21
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
0.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
60%
Scored inContext
90%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.20
ShotsContext
15.90
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
34%
On target shareContext
38%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
62%
Box shareContext
55%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.78
9.00
Shots allowedContext
10.50
2.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
3.22
BlocksContext
3.63
1.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
67%
Save rateContext
79%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
381
PassesContext
517
310
Accurate passesContext
447
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.00
12.78
FoulsContext
10.60
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kocaelispor
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,537 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Fenerbahce
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel197 km908 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kocaelispor |
Fenerbahce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 24 Jan | 3.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 197 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,537 km | 908 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
35Gökhan Değirmenci(G)
21M. Haïdara
5B. Balogh
2A. Dijksteel
22A. Oğuz
10K. Linetty
14Show
8H. Keïta
99R. Rivas
9B. Petković
70C. Keles
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
31Ederson(G)
18M. Müldür
24J. Oosterwolde
37M. Škriniar
27Nélson Semedo
6M. Guendouzi
11E. Álvarez
20A. Musaba
94Talisca
21Marco Asensio
19Y. En-Nesyri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kocaelispor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fenerbahce
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kocaelispor+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Fenerbahce+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Kocaelispor · Home
1.80points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.60
Fenerbahce · Away
2.20points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-0
- Scored
- 2.30
- Conceded
- 0.90
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Kocaelispor | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Goztepe | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Galatasaray | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | W 2–0 H | W 3–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Konyaspor | W 3–2 A | W 4–0 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Besiktas | L 1–3 A | W 3–2 A |
| Rizespor | D 1–1 H | W 5–2 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 0–2 A | W 4–0 A |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 H | W 4–2 H |
| Points | 24 of 54 · 1.33 per game | 40 of 54 · 2.22 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Kocaelispor wins0 draws1 Fenerbahce wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 23 Aug 2025Fenerbahce3–1Kocaelispor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kocaelispor | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.84 | 2.26 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.89 | |
| Match goals | 1.84 | 3.16 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 53% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 26% | 58% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 16% | 47% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 63% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 37% | 37% | |
| Failed to score | 37% | 11% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Kocaelispor | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 1.30 | 2.70 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 40% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kocaelispor | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 8.39 | 10.13 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 8/18 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 6/18 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 3/18 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.42 | 2.26 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.16 | 3.16 | |
| Match total | 4.58 | 5.42 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 12/19 | 74% 14/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 53% 10/19 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Kocaelispor | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 6.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 10.80 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 5.20 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alper Akarsu 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.57league 4.42
Red cards0.13league 0.23
Cards 5+48%league 45%
Fouls23.2league 25.9
Penalties0.39league 0.26
Home wins48%league 36%
KocaelisporNo previous matches with this referee.
Fenerbahce1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W2 Dec 24H · Gazişehir Gaziantep3–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kocaelispor19 games · scored 16 · conceded 19
3
0-15
4
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
7
76-90
Fenerbahce19 games · scored 43 · conceded 17
5
4
0-15
6
6
16-30
10
31-45
5
2
46-60
6
3
61-75
11
2
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 8 · conceded 5
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
5
4
16-30
4
31-45
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
