Kocaelispor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Kocaelispor22.0%fair odds 4.56
Draw24.4%fair odds 4.09
Fenerbahce53.6%fair odds 1.87
Expected goals1.06 – 1.78total 2.85
Likeliest score1–111.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Fenerbahce
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Kocaelispor ↓ · Fenerbahce → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Kocaelispor goals, columns Fenerbahce goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.6%8.62
- 1–29.8%10.19
- 0–19.8%10.24
- 0–29.2%10.85
- 0–06.4%15.65
- 2–15.9%17.06
- 1–35.8%17.16
- 1–05.6%17.87
- 0–35.5%18.26
- 2–25.2%19.15
Winning margin
2.4%
Kocaelispor by 3+
fair 41.78
5.9%
Kocaelispor by 2
fair 16.87
13.6%
Kocaelispor by 1
fair 7.34
24.4%
Draw
fair 4.09
23.2%
Fenerbahce by 1
fair 4.31
16.6%
Fenerbahce by 2
fair 6.02
13.8%
Fenerbahce by 3+
fair 7.26
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Kocaelispor goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
Fenerbahce goals
17%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor win | 22.0% | 22.5% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 24.4% | 25.3% | -0.8 pp |
| Fenerbahce win | 53.6% | 52.2% | +1.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.2% | 51.5% | +2.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.1% | 53.3% | +1.7 pp |
| Expected goals Kocaelispor | 1.06 | 1.04 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals Fenerbahce | 1.78 | 1.70 | +0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Kocaelispor win22.0%4.56
- Draw24.4%4.09
- Fenerbahce win53.6%1.87
- Double chance Kocaelispor or draw46.4%2.16
- Double chance Kocaelispor or Fenerbahce75.6%1.32
- Double chance Fenerbahce or draw78.0%1.28
- Draw no bet Kocaelispor29.1%3.44
- Draw no bet Fenerbahce70.9%1.41
Goals
- Over 0.593.6%1.07
- Over 1.578.3%1.28
- Over 2.554.2%1.85
- Over 3.531.8%3.14
- Over 4.516.0%6.26
- Under 1.521.7%4.60
- Under 2.545.8%2.18
- Under 3.568.2%1.47
Both teams to score
- Yes55.1%1.82
- No44.9%2.23
- Yes and over 2.543.5%2.30
- Kocaelispor win and yes11.5%8.69
- Draw and yes18.1%5.54
- Fenerbahce win and yes25.5%3.92
Team goals
- Kocaelispor over 0.565.5%1.53
- Kocaelispor over 1.528.8%3.47
- Kocaelispor over 2.59.3%10.81
- Fenerbahce over 0.583.2%1.20
- Fenerbahce over 1.553.2%1.88
- Fenerbahce over 2.526.5%3.78
- Kocaelispor clean sheet16.8%5.94
- Fenerbahce clean sheet34.5%2.90
- Kocaelispor win to nil10.4%9.58
- Fenerbahce win to nil28.1%3.56
Handicap
- Kocaelispor −1.58.3%12.02
- Kocaelispor −2.52.4%41.78
- Fenerbahce +1.591.7%1.09
- Fenerbahce +2.597.6%1.02
- Fenerbahce −1.530.4%3.29
- Kocaelispor +1.569.6%1.44
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored179
Favourite won48.0%
Avg chance given to result40.4%
1X2 Brier0.594
Over 2.5 called right52.5%
BTTS called right53.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 24 | 38.0% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 76 | 44.3% | 34.2% |
| 50–60% | 43 | 55.0% | 53.5% |
| 60–70% | 21 | 64.9% | 76.2% |
| 70–80% | 12 | 76.1% | 83.3% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 81.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 153 of 179 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6005 | 0.5880 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.1% | 41.3% |
| Favourite won | 49.0% | 49.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 153 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 179 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.