Kocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Galatasaray were clear favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (76 vs 24). Kocaelispor had 8.9 days of rest, Galatasaray 7.9 and had to travel 197 km.
Away travel197 kmRest days8.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Kocaelispor15%
Draw21%
Galatasaray65%
Kocaelispor15%
Draw22%
Galatasaray63%
Kocaelispor15%
Draw21%
Galatasaray64%
Kocaelispor11%
Draw18%
Galatasaray72%
Kocaelispor15%
Draw22%
Galatasaray63%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kocaeli)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCagdas Altay
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 7
Team strength
Kocaelispor
Galatasaray
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
76
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
16
AttackIn forecast
57
32
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGalatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KocaelisporGalatasaray
0.91
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.27
1.36
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.45
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
2.22
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
64%
Scored inContext
91%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
55%
9.55
ShotsContext
17.09
3.45
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.27
36%
On target shareContext
37%
5.91
Shots in the boxContext
11.09
60%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
1.82
OffsidesContext
2.38
12.36
Shots allowedContext
9.00
3.64
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.36
3.73
BlocksContext
2.44
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
66%
Save rateContext
89%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
336
PassesContext
483
264
Accurate passesContext
422
78%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.69
Team ratingContext
7.12
14.91
FoulsContext
11.73
13.82
Fouls sufferedContext
9.64
2.64
Yellow cardsContext
1.55
0.18
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
2.02
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.30
ShotsContext
15.20
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
39%
On target shareContext
40%
5.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
60%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.80
OffsidesContext
3.14
12.50
Shots allowedContext
10.40
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.80
BlocksContext
3.50
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
66%
Save rateContext
86%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
336
PassesContext
431
263
Accurate passesContext
367
78%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.98
15.00
FoulsContext
12.10
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kocaelispor
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km394 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Galatasaray
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel197 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kocaelispor |
Galatasaray |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 31 Oct | 7.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 197 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 394 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 13.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
1A. Jovanovic
2A. Dijksteel
6H. Smolčić
5B. Balogh
22A. Oğuz
15T. Serbest
8H. Keïta
75T. Bingöl
10K. Linetty
7Daniel Agyei
19S. Dursun
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
4I. Jakobs
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
90W. Singo
34L. Torreira
99M. Lemina
53B. Yılmaz
9M. Icardi
10L. Sané
45V. Osimhen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kocaelispor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Galatasaray
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kocaelispor-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Galatasaray+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Kocaelispor · Home
1.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.60
Galatasaray · Away
3.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-0-0
- Scored
- 2.40
- Conceded
- 0.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 9 this season
| Opponent | Kocaelispor | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Konyaspor | W 3–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Besiktas | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Rizespor | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 0–2 A | W 3–0 A |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 H | W 4–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 11 of 27 · 1.22 per game | 23 of 27 · 2.56 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Kocaelispor | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.91 | 2.27 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.36 | 0.45 | |
| Match goals | 2.27 | 2.73 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 27% | 64% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 45% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 55% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 9% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Kocaelispor | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.70 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kocaelispor | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 9.00 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.82 | 1.64 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.55 | 2.36 | |
| Match total | 5.37 | 4.00 | 4.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 82% 9/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 73% 8/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Kocaelispor | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 8.78 | 8.77 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 4.10 | 4.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cagdas Altay Türkiye · 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.29league 4.60
Red cards0.00league 0.27
Cards 5+14%league 50%
Fouls22.7league 26.1
Penalties0.14league 0.27
Home wins43%league 37%
Kocaelispor1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L11 Aug 25A · Trabzonspor0–10
Galatasaray1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W27 Apr 25A · Eyüpspor5–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kocaelispor11 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
6
76-90
Galatasaray11 games · scored 25 · conceded 5
2
2
0-15
5
16-30
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
7
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
6
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 18 · conceded 10
2
2
0-15
4
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
5
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
