Kocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Kocaelispor
6th · 9 pts · 5 played
LWWWL
2–0Full time
Gazişehir Gaziantep
7th · 8 pts · 5 played
DWLWD
Our take
Kocaelispor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Gazişehir Gaziantep. Kocaelispor had 5.9 days of rest, Gazişehir Gaziantep 4.9 and had to travel 906 km.
Away travel906 kmRest days5.9 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Kocaelispor45%
Draw26%
Gazişehir Gaziantep29%
Kocaelispor47%
Draw25%
Gazişehir Gaziantep28%
Kocaelispor45%
Draw26%
Gazişehir Gaziantep29%
Kocaelispor38%
Draw27%
Gazişehir Gaziantep35%
Kocaelispor45%
Draw26%
Gazişehir Gaziantep29%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kocaeli)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeHalil Umut Meler
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 41
Team strength
KocaelisporGazişehir Gaziantep
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
16
AttackIn forecast
15
32
DefenceIn forecast
18
61
Form indexContext
42
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KocaelisporGazişehir Gaziantep
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
60%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.80
ShotsContext
12.75
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
33%
On target shareContext
33%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
52%
Box shareContext
55%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
1.75
OffsidesContext
3.00
17.20
Shots allowedContext
12.75
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.75
3.80
BlocksContext
3.75
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
83%
Save rateContext
55%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
414
PassesContext
435
339
Accurate passesContext
358
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.98
11.40
FoulsContext
12.75
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
18.00
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
50%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.00
ShotsContext
13.33
3.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
23%
On target shareContext
31%
5.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
61%
Box shareContext
60%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.60
Shots allowedContext
13.33
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.10
BlocksContext
3.11
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
78%
Save rateContext
66%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
414
PassesContext
418
341
Accurate passesContext
349
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.70
FoulsContext
10.89
15.30
Fouls sufferedContext
16.22
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kocaelispor
LWWWL
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km394 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 9 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected
Gazişehir Gaziantep
DWLWD
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel906 km1,826 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Form 42 · 8 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kocaelispor |
Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 13 Sep | 4.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 906 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 394 km | 1,826 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 22.1 | 22 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
83S. Öztaşdelen(G)
21M. Haïdara
5E. Ortakaya
2A. Dijksteel
22U. Yıldız
20Mahamadou Susoho
10B. Kutlu
14Show
26Metehan Altunbaş
97F. Ayé
11Gonçalo Sousa
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
25K. Tobiasz(G)
23K. Çalhanoğlu
14L. Abena
4A. Kızıldağ
2Luis Pérez
6U. Meleke
10K. Kozłowski
44A. Maxim
8V. Gidado
18D. Sorescu
28H. Dervişoğlu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kocaelispor
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kocaelispor+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Gazişehir Gaziantep+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Kocaelispor · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Kocaelispor wins0 draws1 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 15 Feb 2026Kocaelispor3–0Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 14 Sep 2025Gazişehir Gaziantep2–0Kocaelispor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kocaelispor | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.40 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 40% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Kocaelispor | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 1.60 | 2.60 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 10% | 60% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kocaelispor | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.20 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 8.50 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.80 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Kocaelispor | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.11 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 9.86 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.20 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Halil Umut Meler Türkiye · 41 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.51league 3.80
Red cards0.22league 0.15
Cards 5+46%league 41%
Fouls24.0league 25.7
Penalties0.32league 0.33
Home wins34%league 43%
Kocaelispor1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.5.0 · 6.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L17 May 26A · Antalyaspor0–15
Gazişehir GaziantepNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kocaelispor5 games · scored 5 · conceded 4
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep5 games · scored 7 · conceded 5
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 7 · conceded 9
3
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
2
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
