Kocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Kocaelispor
9th · 33 pts · 27 played
LLWLL
0–0Full time
Istanbul Basaksehir
6th · 43 pts · 27 played
WWWLD
Our take
It was too close to call.
Istanbul Basaksehir were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Istanbul Basaksehir. Kocaelispor had 19.2 days of rest, Istanbul Basaksehir 19 and had to travel 197 km.
Away travel197 kmRest days19.2 · 19Matches / 14d0 · 0
Kocaelispor33%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir39%
Kocaelispor35%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir38%
Kocaelispor33%
Draw28%
Istanbul Basaksehir39%
Kocaelispor27%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir46%
Kocaelispor34%
Draw28%
Istanbul Basaksehir39%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kocaeli)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAli Yilmaz
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 19
Team strength
KocaelisporIstanbul Basaksehir
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
16
AttackIn forecast
32
32
DefenceIn forecast
34
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisIstanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KocaelisporIstanbul Basaksehir
0.85
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.63
1.19
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.11
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
0.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
59%
Scored inContext
81%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
9.89
ShotsContext
12.67
3.27
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.52
32%
On target shareContext
36%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.84
61%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.19
OffsidesContext
1.72
11.00
Shots allowedContext
12.48
3.46
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.62
BlocksContext
3.88
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
63%
Save rateContext
75%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
364
PassesContext
424
292
Accurate passesContext
357
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.90
15.15
FoulsContext
12.74
13.11
Fouls sufferedContext
13.26
2.26
Yellow cardsContext
2.19
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
50%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.70
ShotsContext
13.00
2.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
27%
On target shareContext
42%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.78
65%
Box shareContext
72%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.90
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.10
BlocksContext
4.11
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
58%
Save rateContext
73%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
370
PassesContext
423
298
Accurate passesContext
354
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.88
17.30
FoulsContext
13.80
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kocaelispor
Rest19.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest19 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel197 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kocaelispor |
Istanbul Basaksehir |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 19.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Mar | 19Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 197 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
83Serhat Öztaşdelen
3Muharrem Cinan
6H. Smolčić
2A. Dijksteel
22A. Oğuz
8H. Keïta
14Show
20Mahamadou Susoho
75T. Bingöl
19S. Dursun
7Daniel Agyei
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
21C. Opéri
3J. Opoku
5Léo Duarte
42Ö. Şahiner
20U. Güneş
8O. Kemen
25A. Harit
14E. Shomurodov
7Y. Sarı
9D. Selke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kocaelispor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Istanbul Basaksehir
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kocaelispor+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Istanbul Basaksehir-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Kocaelispor · Home
1.50points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.79
Istanbul Basaksehir · Away
1.69points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-5
- Scored
- 1.62
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Kocaelispor | Istanbul Basaksehir |
|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | L 0–5 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Konyaspor | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Besiktas | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Rizespor | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A | W 5–1 H |
| Kayserispor | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Samsunspor | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | L 3–4 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Goztepe | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Galatasaray | W 1–0 H | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H |
| Points | 33 of 78 · 1.27 per game | 40 of 78 · 1.54 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Kocaelispor wins0 draws1 Istanbul Basaksehir wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 31 Oct 2025Istanbul Basaksehir1–0Kocaelispor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kocaelispor | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.85 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.19 | 1.11 | |
| Match goals | 2.04 | 2.74 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 59% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 59% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 37% | 59% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 19% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Kocaelispor | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.90 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kocaelispor | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.38 | 4.58 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.88 | 5.35 | |
| Match total | 8.26 | 9.93 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 11/26 | 62% 16/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 8/26 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 15% 4/26 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.22 | 2.48 | |
| Match total | 4.55 | 4.81 | 4.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 18/27 | 70% 19/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 52% 14/27 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Kocaelispor | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 8.67 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.90 | 4.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ali Yilmaz Türkiye · 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.11league 4.45
Red cards0.11league 0.22
Cards 5+47%league 45%
Fouls24.8league 26.2
Penalties0.26league 0.28
Home wins58%league 40%
Kocaelispor1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D23 Nov 25A · Goztepe0–04
Istanbul Basaksehir3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 3.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- D22 Oct 25A · Rizespor0–02
- W17 Sep 25A · Fatih Karagümrük2–02
- W3 May 25A · Hatayspor4–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kocaelispor27 games · scored 23 · conceded 32
1
4
0-15
4
1
16-30
5
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
5
5
61-75
6
12
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir27 games · scored 44 · conceded 30
4
0-15
7
2
16-30
7
8
31-45
7
4
46-60
9
8
61-75
10
8
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 8 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
4
0-15
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
