Kocaelispor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Kocaelispor
9th · 33 pts · 27 played
LLWLL
0–0Full time
Istanbul Basaksehir
6th · 43 pts · 27 played
WWWLD
Kocaelispor33.5%fair odds 2.99
Draw27.5%fair odds 3.64
Istanbul Basaksehir39.0%fair odds 2.56
Expected goals1.26 – 1.37total 2.63
Likeliest score1–113.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Istanbul Basaksehir
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Kocaelispor ↓ · Istanbul Basaksehir → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 13.1 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Kocaelispor goals, columns Istanbul Basaksehir goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%7.63
- 0–19.2%10.81
- 1–28.5%11.70
- 1–08.4%11.92
- 0–07.9%12.71
- 2–17.8%12.81
- 0–26.8%14.69
- 2–05.7%17.60
- 2–25.4%18.64
- 1–33.9%25.53
Winning margin
4.9%
Kocaelispor by 3+
fair 20.20
9.7%
Kocaelispor by 2
fair 10.27
18.8%
Kocaelispor by 1
fair 5.32
27.5%
Draw
fair 3.64
20.6%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 1
fair 4.84
11.7%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 2
fair 8.57
6.7%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 3+
fair 14.89
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
13%5+
Kocaelispor goals
28%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
Istanbul Basaksehir goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor win | 33.5% | 33.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 27.5% | 27.8% | -0.3 pp |
| Istanbul Basaksehir win | 39.0% | 38.6% | +0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.9% | 47.6% | +1.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.1% | 53.0% | +1.0 pp |
| Expected goals Kocaelispor | 1.26 | 1.24 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Istanbul Basaksehir | 1.37 | 1.34 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Kocaelispor win33.5%2.99
- Draw27.5%3.64
- Istanbul Basaksehir win39.0%2.56
- Double chance Kocaelispor or draw61.0%1.64
- Double chance Kocaelispor or Istanbul Basaksehir72.5%1.38
- Double chance Istanbul Basaksehir or draw66.5%1.50
- Draw no bet Kocaelispor46.2%2.17
- Draw no bet Istanbul Basaksehir53.8%1.86
Goals
- Over 0.592.1%1.09
- Over 1.574.5%1.34
- Over 2.548.9%2.04
- Over 3.527.1%3.70
- Over 4.512.7%7.88
- Under 1.525.5%3.92
- Under 2.551.1%1.96
- Under 3.572.9%1.37
Both teams to score
- Yes54.1%1.85
- No45.9%2.18
- Yes and over 2.541.0%2.44
- Kocaelispor win and yes16.1%6.23
- Draw and yes19.6%5.10
- Istanbul Basaksehir win and yes18.4%5.43
Team goals
- Kocaelispor over 0.571.5%1.40
- Kocaelispor over 1.535.7%2.80
- Kocaelispor over 2.513.3%7.53
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 0.574.7%1.34
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 1.539.9%2.50
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 2.516.0%6.24
- Kocaelispor clean sheet25.3%3.95
- Istanbul Basaksehir clean sheet28.5%3.51
- Kocaelispor win to nil17.4%5.74
- Istanbul Basaksehir win to nil20.6%4.85
Handicap
- Kocaelispor −1.514.7%6.81
- Kocaelispor −2.54.9%20.20
- Istanbul Basaksehir +1.585.3%1.17
- Istanbul Basaksehir +2.595.1%1.05
- Istanbul Basaksehir −1.518.4%5.44
- Kocaelispor +1.581.6%1.23
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored249
Favourite won51.8%
Avg chance given to result40.8%
1X2 Brier0.585
Over 2.5 called right53.0%
BTTS called right52.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 37 | 38.1% | 37.8% |
| 40–50% | 100 | 44.1% | 41.0% |
| 50–60% | 65 | 55.0% | 58.5% |
| 60–70% | 27 | 65.2% | 74.1% |
| 70–80% | 16 | 75.7% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 82.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 199 of 249 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5890 | 0.5756 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.6% | 41.8% |
| Favourite won | 53.3% | 53.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 199 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 249 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.