Kocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Kocaelispor were slight favourites.
Kocaelispor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 19). Kocaelispor had 6.9 days of rest, Kayserispor 5.9 and had to travel 694 km.
Away travel694 kmRest days6.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Kocaelispor48%
Draw27%
Kayserispor25%
Kocaelispor49%
Draw26%
Kayserispor25%
Kocaelispor48%
Draw27%
Kayserispor25%
Kocaelispor41%
Draw28%
Kayserispor31%
Kocaelispor49%
Draw26%
Kayserispor25%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kocaeli)
No weather data yet
RefereeYasin Kol
- Cards per match 6.1
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 20
Team strength
Kocaelispor
Kayserispor
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
16
AttackIn forecast
16
32
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKayserispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KocaelisporKayserispor
0.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
0.66
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.18
-0.45
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
33%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.67
ShotsContext
8.50
2.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
24%
On target shareContext
29%
5.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
54%
Box shareContext
71%
3%
ConversionContext
6%
1.67
OffsidesContext
—
15.00
Shots allowedContext
15.00
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
3.67
BlocksContext
—
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
75%
Save rateContext
67%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
288
PassesContext
292
217
Accurate passesContext
226
75%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.54
Team ratingContext
6.58
13.00
FoulsContext
8.00
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.33
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
-0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
33%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.67
ShotsContext
7.70
2.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
24%
On target shareContext
40%
5.67
Shots in the boxContext
5.20
54%
Box shareContext
66%
3%
ConversionContext
16%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.50
15.00
Shots allowedContext
16.90
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.67
BlocksContext
4.75
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
75%
Save rateContext
73%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
288
PassesContext
321
217
Accurate passesContext
252
75%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.54
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.00
FoulsContext
10.40
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.33
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kocaelispor
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km394 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kayserispor
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel694 km1,225 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kocaelispor |
Kayserispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 23 Aug | 5.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 24 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 694 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 394 km | 1,225 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15 | 14.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
1A. Jovanović(G)
3Muharrem Cinan
34O. Syrota
5A. Appindangoyé
2A. Dijksteel
98J. Nonge Boende
14Show
75T. Bingöl
20Ryan Mendes
9B. Petković
70C. Keles
Kayserispor
Confirmed XI
25B. Bayazıt(G)
23L. Carole
4S. Denswil
3A. Burak
11G. Sazdağı
79Y. Ackah
7Miguel Cardoso
8L. Bénes
10João Mendes
28R. Civelek
22I. Tuci
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kocaelispor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Kayserispor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kocaelispor+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Kayserispor+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Kocaelispor · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Kayserispor · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Kocaelispor | Kayserispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 50% | |
| Games | 3 | 2 |
| Kocaelispor | Kayserispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 50% | |
| Games | 3 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kocaelispor | Kayserispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.00 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.00 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Kocaelispor | Kayserispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.22 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.60 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yasin Kol 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.50league 3.95
Red cards0.55league 0.32
Cards 5+65%league 36%
Fouls27.1league 25.6
Penalties0.40league 0.36
Home wins30%league 45%
KocaelisporNo previous matches with this referee.
Kayserispor3 with this referee
Record0-3-0
Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D5 Jan 25A · BB Bodrumspor1–14
- D5 Oct 24A · Istanbul Basaksehir1–11
- D2 Sep 23A · Antalyaspor1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kocaelispor3 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Kayserispor2 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Kocaelispor3 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Kayserispor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
