Kocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Trabzonspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 27). Kocaelispor had 29.9 days of rest, Trabzonspor 26.9 and had to travel 1,046 km.
Away travel1,046 kmRest days29.9 · 26.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Kocaelispor35%
Draw27%
Trabzonspor38%
Kocaelispor35%
Draw27%
Trabzonspor37%
Kocaelispor35%
Draw27%
Trabzonspor38%
Kocaelispor28%
Draw26%
Trabzonspor46%
Kocaelispor35%
Draw27%
Trabzonspor38%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kocaeli)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAdnan Deniz Kayatepe
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 11
Team strength
Kocaelispor
Trabzonspor
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
16
AttackIn forecast
54
32
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTrabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KocaelisporTrabzonspor
0.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.94
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.18
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
65%
Scored inContext
88%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
10.00
ShotsContext
15.82
3.47
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.82
35%
On target shareContext
37%
5.88
Shots in the boxContext
10.06
58%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.18
OffsidesContext
2.38
10.47
Shots allowedContext
14.18
3.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
3.31
BlocksContext
3.88
2.64
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.92
67%
Save rateContext
77%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
361
PassesContext
417
288
Accurate passesContext
356
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.98
13.81
FoulsContext
11.53
13.29
Fouls sufferedContext
13.59
2.41
Yellow cardsContext
1.59
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.18
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.75
0.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.65
70%
Scored inContext
90%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.60
ShotsContext
17.30
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.00
37%
On target shareContext
41%
6.10
Shots in the boxContext
10.60
58%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
2.70
OffsidesContext
3.00
8.70
Shots allowedContext
15.50
2.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.00
BlocksContext
3.90
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
67%
Save rateContext
72%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
376
PassesContext
438
306
Accurate passesContext
380
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.00
13.89
FoulsContext
11.40
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kocaelispor
Rest29.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Trabzonspor
Rest26.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,046 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kocaelispor |
Trabzonspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 29.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Dec | 26.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 22 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,046 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
1A. Jovanovic
21M. Haïdara
6H. Smolčić
2A. Dijksteel
22A. Oğuz
75T. Bingöl
10K. Linetty
17D. Churlinov
99R. Rivas
7Daniel Agyei
9B. Petković
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
24A. Onana(G)
19M. Eskihellaç
44A. Batagov
27Chibuike Nwaiwu
20Wagner Pina
42Christ Inao Oulaï
26Tim Jabol-Folcarelli
70K. Olaigbe
10E. Muçi
22O. Zubkov
99F. da Silva
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kocaelispor
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Trabzonspor
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kocaelispor-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Trabzonspor+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Kocaelispor · Home
2.00points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.44
Trabzonspor · Away
2.00points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.63
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Kocaelispor | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| Antalyaspor | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 1–1 A | W 4–3 A |
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 H | L 3–4 A |
| Goztepe | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Galatasaray | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–1 A | W 4–3 A |
| Alanyaspor | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Konyaspor | W 3–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Besiktas | L 1–3 A | D 3–3 H |
| Rizespor | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 H | W 4–0 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Samsunspor | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 23 of 48 · 1.44 per game | 32 of 48 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Kocaelispor wins0 draws1 Trabzonspor wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 11 Aug 2025Trabzonspor1–0Kocaelispor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kocaelispor | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 1.94 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.18 | |
| Match goals | 1.88 | 3.12 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 53% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 24% | 47% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 59% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 12% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Kocaelispor | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 1.60 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 70% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kocaelispor | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.63 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 8.38 | 9.40 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 7/16 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 5/16 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 19% 3/16 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.53 | 1.76 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.24 | 2.65 | |
| Match total | 4.77 | 4.41 | 4.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 12/17 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 59% 10/17 | 35% 6/17 | |
| Kocaelispor | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.20 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 7.60 | 9.33 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.30 | 4.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adnan Deniz Kayatepe Türkiye · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.36league 4.44
Red cards0.09league 0.24
Cards 5+45%league 46%
Fouls26.5league 25.8
Penalties0.36league 0.26
Home wins36%league 37%
Kocaelispor1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W4 Oct 25H · Eyüpspor1–03
Trabzonspor1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D31 Aug 25H · Samsunspor1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kocaelispor17 games · scored 15 · conceded 17
3
0-15
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
6
76-90
Trabzonspor17 games · scored 33 · conceded 20
4
1
0-15
4
6
16-30
6
5
31-45
8
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
7
5
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 5
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 24 · conceded 14
4
1
0-15
2
5
16-30
3
3
31-45
7
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
