Konyaspor vs Samsunspor – 2 Nov 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 2 · 11:30 Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Konya

Konyaspor 8th · 14 pts · 10 played WDLLW

1–3Full time

Samsunspor 6th · 17 pts · 10 played WDDWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Samsunspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 21). Konyaspor had 6.9 days of rest, Samsunspor 5.8 and had to travel 502 km.

Away travel502 kmRest days6.9 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Konyaspor33%

Draw27%

Samsunspor40%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.44

Konyaspor33%

Draw27%

Samsunspor40%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.41

Konyaspor34%

Draw27%

Samsunspor39%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.42

Konyaspor26%

Draw26%

Samsunspor48%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.61

Konyaspor33%

Draw27%

Samsunspor40%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.42

Over 2.5 51% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Konya)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeAli Sansalan

Cards per match 5.2
Penalties per match 0.89
Matches 9

Team strength

Konyaspor

Samsunspor

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 35

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 23

13 AttackIn forecast 15

31 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Konyaspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Samsunspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Konyaspor

Samsunspor

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.43

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.84

+0.50 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

90% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.30 ShotsContext 13.20

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

35% On target shareContext 33%

8.10 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

61% Box shareContext 60%

13% ConversionContext 11%

2.25 OffsidesContext 2.25

12.80 Shots allowedContext 11.60

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.10

3.00 BlocksContext 3.11

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

67% Save rateContext 79%

52% PossessionIn forecast 51%

378 PassesContext 392

310 Accurate passesContext 323

82% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.83

12.00 FoulsContext 13.40

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 10 and 10 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.56

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.90

+0.50 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

90% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.30 ShotsContext 13.00

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

35% On target shareContext 33%

8.10 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

61% Box shareContext 64%

13% ConversionContext 12%

2.25 OffsidesContext 2.14

12.80 Shots allowedContext 12.20

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.11

3.00 BlocksContext 3.11

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

67% Save rateContext 74%

52% PossessionIn forecast 47%

378 PassesContext 374

310 Accurate passesContext 303

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.88

12.00 FoulsContext 12.40

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Konyaspor

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km460 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Samsunspor

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel502 km585 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Konyaspor	Samsunspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 26 Oct	5.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 27 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	502 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	460 km	585 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Konyaspor Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13B. Güngördü(G)

12G. Sityá 4A. Demirbağ 20R. Bazoer 23Y. Andzouana

77M. İbrahimoğlu 21J. Jo

40J. Muleka 10E. Bardhi 18A. Ndao

22M. Nayir

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Samsunspor Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1O. Kocuk(G)

17L. Tomasson 4R. van Drongelen 37Ľ. Šatka 18Z. Yavru

29A. Makoumbou

7A. Musaba 5C. Yüksel 21C. Holse 11E. Kılınç

19P. Ndiaye

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Konyaspor Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Samsunspor Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Konyaspor-0.5 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Samsunspor+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Konyaspor · Home 1.20points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-3
Scored: 1.60
Conceded: 1.60

Samsunspor · Away 2.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-0
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Konyaspor	Samsunspor
Genclerbirligi	W 2–1 A	W 2–1 H
Kocaelispor	L 2–3 H	W 1–0 A
Kasimpasa	D 1–1 A	D 0–0 H
Gazişehir Gaziantep	W 3–0 H	D 2–2 A
Points	7 of 12 · 1.75 per game	8 of 12 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 Konyaspor wins1 draws1 Samsunspor wins

Goals per game1.25 – 0.50 Over 2.525% Both scored25% Clean sheets50% · 25%

16 Feb 2025Konyaspor0–1Samsunspor
14 Sep 2024Samsunspor0–1Konyaspor
12 May 2024Konyaspor3–0Samsunspor
21 Dec 2023Samsunspor1–1Konyaspor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Konyaspor	Samsunspor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.40
Conceded per game	1.50	1.00
Match goals	3.20	2.40	2.72
Over 1.5	100%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	51%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	80%	70%	56%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

	Konyaspor	Samsunspor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.40
Conceded per game	1.50	1.00
Match goals	3.20	2.40	2.72
Over 1.5	100%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	51%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	80%	70%	56%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Konyaspor	Samsunspor	League
Corners
Corners won	5.70	5.90
Corners conceded	5.30	4.90
Match total	11.00	10.80	9.74
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.40
Opponent cards	2.50	2.10
Match total	4.80	4.50	4.96
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

	Konyaspor	Samsunspor	League
Corners
Corners won	5.70	5.60
Corners conceded	5.30	5.50
Match total	11.00	11.10	9.74
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.40
Opponent cards	2.50	2.30
Match total	4.80	4.70	4.96
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ali Sansalan Türkiye · 9 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.00league 4.66

Red cards0.22league 0.29

Cards 5+78%league 54%

Fouls26.2league 26.2

Penalties0.89league 0.28

Home wins67%league 38%

Konyaspor1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D29 Aug 25A · Goztepe1–12

Samsunspor1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D17 Sep 25H · Kasimpasa0–04

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.