Kortrijk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SK Beveren were slight favourites.
SK Beveren were the stronger side on L90 Strength (28 vs 11). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Kortrijk. Kortrijk had 7 days of rest, SK Beveren 8.1 and had to travel 81 km.
Away travel81 kmRest days7 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Kortrijk31%
Draw25%
SK Beveren44%
Kortrijk28%
Draw25%
SK Beveren46%
Kortrijk31%
Draw25%
SK Beveren44%
Kortrijk25%
Draw24%
SK Beveren52%
Kortrijk31%
Draw25%
SK Beveren44%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kortrijk)
No weather data yet
RefereeYusuke Araki
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.67
- Matches 3
Team strength
Kortrijk
SK Beveren
11
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
25
10
AttackIn forecast
18
16
DefenceIn forecast
20
4
Form indexContext
55
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSK Beveren
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KortrijkSK Beveren
0.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
0.74
2.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.28
-0.73
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
17%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.33
ShotsContext
11.17
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
26%
On target shareContext
33%
6.17
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
59%
Box shareContext
66%
2%
ConversionContext
10%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.17
15.67
Shots allowedContext
14.50
5.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.20
3.17
BlocksContext
3.83
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.60
60%
Save rateContext
74%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
399
PassesContext
455
316
Accurate passesContext
370
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.38
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.00
FoulsContext
9.17
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.33
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
—
xGVia Att/Def
0.74
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.28
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
30%
Scored inContext
67%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.30
ShotsContext
11.17
2.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
28%
On target shareContext
33%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
60%
Box shareContext
66%
5%
ConversionContext
10%
2.71
OffsidesContext
2.17
14.70
Shots allowedContext
14.50
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.20
3.40
BlocksContext
3.83
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.60
64%
Save rateContext
74%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
393
PassesContext
455
300
Accurate passesContext
370
76%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.58
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.60
FoulsContext
9.17
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.33
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kortrijk
LLLLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km151 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 4 · 0 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -4.6 vs expected
SK Beveren
WLLWW
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel81 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 55 · 9 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · +3.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kortrijk |
SK Beveren |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 13 Sep | 8.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 81 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 151 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.1 | 19.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kortrijk
Confirmed XI
31M. Ilić(G)
5J. Ndjeungoue
21A. Drouhin
4H. Murray-Campbell
8N. Mehssatou
18J. Van Landschoot
24J. Roche
19B. Dejaegere
11S. Campbell
68T. Ambrose
90Sixtus Ogbuehi
SK Beveren
Confirmed XI
1J. Schenk(G)
4C. Janssens
31B. Godeau
77S. Keller
21L. Jans
44C. Conde
18S. Dewaele
17J. Margaritha
22C. Brüls
5C. Lokesa
9M. Kaboré
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kortrijk
Absences are shown before kick-off
SK Beveren
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kortrijk+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SK Beveren+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Kortrijk · Home
0.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 2.67
SK Beveren · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 3.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Kortrijk | SK Beveren |
|---|---|---|
| Zulte Waregem | L 0–2 H | L 0–4 A |
| Anderlecht | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Antwerp | L 0–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 0 of 9 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Kortrijk | SK Beveren | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.17 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.83 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 17% | 17% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 83% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Kortrijk | SK Beveren | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.17 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.83 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 17% | 17% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 83% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kortrijk | SK Beveren | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 4.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.80 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 9.00 | 10.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 0.83 | |
| Match total | 3.17 | 2.83 | 3.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Kortrijk | SK Beveren | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.44 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 10.77 | 9.00 | 10.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 0.83 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 2.83 | 3.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 17% 1/6 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yusuke Araki 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.06
Red cards0.00league 0.13
Cards 5+33%league 26%
Fouls25.0league 22.1
Penalties0.67league 0.26
Home wins0%league 50%
KortrijkNo previous matches with this referee.
SK BeverenNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kortrijk6 games · scored 1 · conceded 15
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
46-60
4
61-75
5
76-90
SK Beveren6 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Kortrijk10 games · scored 5 · conceded 21
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
6
31-45
46-60
2
5
61-75
1
7
76-90
SK Beveren6 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
