Kortrijk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Zulte Waregem were slight favourites.
Zulte Waregem were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Zulte Waregem. Kortrijk had 2.8 days of rest, Zulte Waregem 6.9 and had to travel 13 km.
Away travel13 kmRest days2.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Kortrijk24%
Draw24%
Zulte Waregem52%
Kortrijk27%
Draw25%
Zulte Waregem48%
Kortrijk24%
Draw24%
Zulte Waregem52%
Kortrijk18%
Draw22%
Zulte Waregem60%
Kortrijk24%
Draw24%
Zulte Waregem53%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kortrijk)
No weather data yet
RefereeJasper Vergoote
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 61
Team strength
Kortrijk
Zulte Waregem
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
10
AttackIn forecast
27
16
DefenceIn forecast
31
11
Form indexContext
65
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisZulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KortrijkZulte Waregem
0.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
2.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
-0.65
Goals minus xGContext
+0.62
25%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.75
ShotsContext
13.00
2.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.25
26%
On target shareContext
40%
6.75
Shots in the boxContext
8.75
63%
Box shareContext
67%
2%
ConversionContext
15%
3.33
OffsidesContext
—
16.50
Shots allowedContext
11.00
6.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.25
BlocksContext
3.25
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
60%
Save rateContext
81%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
369
PassesContext
339
283
Accurate passesContext
269
77%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.40
Team ratingContext
7.16
11.50
FoulsContext
11.25
9.25
Fouls sufferedContext
15.25
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
0.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.50
40%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.00
ShotsContext
13.10
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
28%
On target shareContext
39%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
62%
Box shareContext
64%
6%
ConversionContext
18%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.50
15.20
Shots allowedContext
11.20
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.60
BlocksContext
3.56
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
66%
Save rateContext
76%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
374
PassesContext
386
280
Accurate passesContext
303
75%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.67
Team ratingContext
7.08
10.90
FoulsContext
10.70
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
14.80
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
0.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kortrijk
LLLL
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km152 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 11 · 0 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · -2.9 vs expected
Zulte Waregem
WDWD
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel13 km213 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 65 · 8 pts vs 6.3 for an average club · +2.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kortrijk |
Zulte Waregem |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 3 Sep | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 13 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 152 km | 213 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kortrijk
Confirmed XI
31M. Ilić(G)
4H. Murray-Campbell
21A. Drouhin
22G. Ruyssen
36R. Kohon
19B. Dejaegere
17R. Štorman
24J. Roche
68T. Ambrose
10G. Koyalipou
7S. Podgoreanu
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
1L. Bostyn(G)
55Y. Cappelle
5Jakob Kiilerich
4L. Lemoine
49Franz Tangala
36S. Ujka
6E. Lofolomo
8T. Claes
11M. Aké
18A. Ementa
20T. Hedl
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kortrijk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kortrijk+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Kortrijk · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 3.00
Zulte Waregem · Away
1.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Kortrijk | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.25 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 75% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 75% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Kortrijk | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.25 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.90 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 75% | 30% | |
| Games | 4 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kortrijk | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.50 | 10.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.25 | 0.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 2.25 | 2.75 | 2.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Kortrijk | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.30 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 9.50 | 10.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 0.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 2.40 | 2.90 | 2.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jasper Vergoote 61 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.38league 2.71
Red cards0.26league 0.12
Cards 5+25%league 19%
Fouls22.6league 22.0
Penalties0.39league 0.29
Home wins49%league 48%
KortrijkNo previous matches with this referee.
Zulte Waregem2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W12 Apr 26A · Dender2–10
- L28 Feb 26A · KV Mechelen1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kortrijk4 games · scored 1 · conceded 10
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
46-60
4
61-75
2
76-90
Zulte Waregem4 games · scored 8 · conceded 3
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Kortrijk10 games · scored 6 · conceded 20
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
6
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
5
61-75
1
4
76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 23 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
