KV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
KV Mechelen
6th · 42 pts · 28 played
WLWWL
First leg1–3
1–0Full time
Anderlecht
4th · 44 pts · 28 played
LDWWD
Our take
It was too close to call.
Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Anderlecht. KV Mechelen had 7.1 days of rest, Anderlecht 7.2 and had to travel 21 km.
Away travel21 kmRest days7.1 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
KV Mechelen34%
Draw27%
Anderlecht40%
KV Mechelen38%
Draw27%
Anderlecht35%
KV Mechelen34%
Draw27%
Anderlecht40%
KV Mechelen27%
Draw26%
Anderlecht47%
KV Mechelen34%
Draw27%
Anderlecht40%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Malines)
No weather data yet
RefereeNicolas Laforge
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 38
Team strength
KV MechelenAnderlecht
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
18
AttackIn forecast
37
23
DefenceIn forecast
52
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAnderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KV MechelenAnderlecht
1.32
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.46
1.18
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
86%
Scored inContext
71%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
9.82
ShotsContext
14.50
3.74
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.57
37%
On target shareContext
32%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.61
68%
Box shareContext
60%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.37
OffsidesContext
2.08
14.00
Shots allowedContext
12.21
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.92
BlocksContext
3.07
4.12
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.62
84%
Save rateContext
64%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
401
PassesContext
426
326
Accurate passesContext
347
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.61
FoulsContext
13.75
11.21
Fouls sufferedContext
11.04
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
80%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.80
ShotsContext
13.90
3.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
33%
On target shareContext
29%
6.44
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
70%
Box shareContext
62%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
3.29
OffsidesContext
1.90
12.50
Shots allowedContext
15.00
5.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.44
2.89
BlocksContext
3.80
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
76%
Save rateContext
63%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
416
PassesContext
407
337
Accurate passesContext
330
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.10
FoulsContext
14.40
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KV Mechelen
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km107 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Anderlecht
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel21 km176 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KV Mechelen |
Anderlecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 8 Mar | 7.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 8 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 21 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 107 km | 176 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
3José Marsà
2R. Halhal
33T. St. Jago
23Moncef Zekri
29D. Salifou
6F. Hammar
7T. Koudou
9M. van Brederode
28B. Boersma
19A. Mrabti
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
6H. Augustinsson
93M. Diarra
15M. Ilić
7I. Camara
24E. Llansana
13N. Saliba
9M. CvetkoviÄ
74N. De Cat
83T. Degreef
11T. Hazard
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KV Mechelen · Home
1.50points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-6-3
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.14
Anderlecht · Away
1.14points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-6
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | KV Mechelen | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| Gent | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | L 2–4 AW 1–0 H |
| Zulte Waregem | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | W 4–2 AL 2–3 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–0 AW 3–2 H | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Genk | L 2–3 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Antwerp | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| OH Leuven | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | W 5–1 HD 1–1 A |
| KVC Westerlo | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | L 0–4 AW 5–2 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Dender | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| St. Truiden | L 0–1 AL 1–3 H | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 3–2 AD 0–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Charleroi | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Standard Liege | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Club Brugge KV | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 42 of 81 · 1.56 per game | 41 of 81 · 1.52 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 KV Mechelen wins1 draws2 Anderlecht wins
Goals per game1.33 – 2.67
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 1 Nov 2025Anderlecht3–1KV Mechelen
- 1 Feb 2024KV Mechelen2–2Anderlecht
- 7 Oct 2023Anderlecht3–1KV Mechelen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KV Mechelen | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.32 | 1.46 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.18 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.71 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39% | 43% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 46% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 29% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| KV Mechelen | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KV Mechelen | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 6.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.78 | 4.71 | |
| Match total | 10.45 | 10.85 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 17/27 | 86% 24/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 15/27 | 71% 20/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 12/27 | 61% 17/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 2.61 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.79 | 2.54 | |
| Match total | 4.04 | 5.15 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 17/28 | 71% 20/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 10/28 | 64% 18/28 | |
| KV Mechelen | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 12.40 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.10 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nicolas Laforge 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.32league 3.82
Red cards0.13league 0.19
Cards 5+47%league 40%
Fouls22.2league 22.7
Penalties0.32league 0.32
Home wins45%league 41%
KV Mechelen6 with this referee
Record1-3-2
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W7 Dec 25H · Charleroi1–04
- D12 Sep 25A · Standard Liege1–13
- D16 Aug 25H · Gent1–11
- D10 Dec 23H · Club Brugge KV0–03
- L7 Oct 23A · Anderlecht1–33
Anderlecht5 with this referee
Record4-1-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.8
Pens for · against2 · 0
- D19 Oct 25A · St. Truiden2–22
- W23 Sep 25H · Gent1–03
- W9 Mar 24A · RWDM3–01
- W4 Feb 24H · Gent1–01
- W7 Oct 23H · KV Mechelen3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KV Mechelen28 games · scored 37 · conceded 33
7
2
0-15
5
4
16-30
7
4
31-45
5
5
46-60
5
7
61-75
8
11
76-90
Anderlecht28 games · scored 41 · conceded 35
6
5
0-15
5
6
16-30
6
4
31-45
9
6
46-60
8
2
61-75
7
12
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
3
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
