KV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
KV Mechelen
5th · 24 pts · 16 played
DLDWL
First leg2–0
1–0Full time
Charleroi
10th · 19 pts · 16 played
WLWLD
Our take
KV Mechelen were slight favourites.
KV Mechelen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 22). KV Mechelen had 8.7 days of rest, Charleroi 7.7 and had to travel 68 km.
Away travel68 kmRest days8.7 · 7.7Matches / 14d2 · 1
KV Mechelen51%
Draw26%
Charleroi23%
KV Mechelen52%
Draw25%
Charleroi23%
KV Mechelen51%
Draw26%
Charleroi23%
KV Mechelen44%
Draw27%
Charleroi29%
KV Mechelen52%
Draw25%
Charleroi23%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Malines)
No weather data yet
RefereeNicolas Laforge
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 31
Team strength
KV MechelenCharleroi
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
18
AttackIn forecast
43
23
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCharleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KV MechelenCharleroi
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
1.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.31
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
88%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
10.25
ShotsContext
10.50
3.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.06
38%
On target shareContext
39%
7.27
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
68%
Box shareContext
61%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.91
OffsidesContext
2.62
15.31
Shots allowedContext
11.38
4.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
4.80
BlocksContext
3.60
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.62
88%
Save rateContext
71%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
390
PassesContext
363
319
Accurate passesContext
289
82%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.87
9.38
FoulsContext
11.19
10.63
Fouls sufferedContext
11.69
2.31
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.00
ShotsContext
10.60
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
33%
On target shareContext
39%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
69%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
2.17
OffsidesContext
3.00
14.50
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
4.56
BlocksContext
4.33
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
85%
Save rateContext
70%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
383
PassesContext
351
309
Accurate passesContext
278
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.86
9.50
FoulsContext
9.50
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KV Mechelen
Rest8.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km144 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Charleroi
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel68 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KV Mechelen |
Charleroi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 28 Nov | 7.7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 68 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 144 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
18Ian Struyf
8M. Konaté
33T. St. Jago
17Mathis Servais
6F. Hammar
29D. Salifou
7T. Koudou
19A. Mrabti
9M. van Brederode
20L. Lauberbach
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
30M. Koné(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
27L. Blum
5É. Camara
22Y. Titraoui
10P. Guiagon
14P. Pflücke
17A. Bernier
21A. Scheidler
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KV Mechelen · Home
1.25points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-2
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.25
Charleroi · Away
0.88points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-5
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | KV Mechelen | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Genk | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Anderlecht | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| OH Leuven | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Dender | W 3–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| St. Truiden | L 1–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Cercle Brugge | D 0–0 H | W 3–2 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 3–2 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Antwerp | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Gent | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| KVC Westerlo | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Club Brugge KV | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 21 of 45 · 1.40 per game | 19 of 45 · 1.27 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 KV Mechelen wins0 draws1 Charleroi wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 0%
- 28 Sep 2025Charleroi0–2KV Mechelen
- 27 Dec 2023Charleroi3–1KV Mechelen
- 11 Nov 2023KV Mechelen1–0Charleroi
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KV Mechelen | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 1.31 | |
| Match goals | 2.38 | 2.44 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 44% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 56% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 25% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| KV Mechelen | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.10 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KV Mechelen | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 4.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 4.69 | |
| Match total | 10.94 | 9.32 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 10/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 10/16 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 9/16 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.31 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.38 | 1.56 | |
| Match total | 3.69 | 3.56 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 10/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 5/16 | 31% 5/16 | |
| KV Mechelen | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.30 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 10.10 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.40 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nicolas Laforge 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.42league 3.80
Red cards0.13league 0.19
Cards 5+48%league 42%
Fouls22.6league 22.9
Penalties0.39league 0.30
Home wins45%league 42%
KV Mechelen5 with this referee
Record0-3-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D12 Sep 25A · Standard Liege1–13
- D16 Aug 25H · Gent1–11
- D10 Dec 23H · Club Brugge KV0–03
- L7 Oct 23A · Anderlecht1–33
- L6 Aug 23H · Gent0–12
Charleroi3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- L10 Aug 25A · RAAL La Louvière0–10
- D17 Feb 24A · OH Leuven0–05
- D13 Aug 23H · Standard Liege1–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KV Mechelen16 games · scored 20 · conceded 18
3
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
8
76-90
Charleroi16 games · scored 18 · conceded 21
3
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
6
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
