KV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Gent usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. KV Mechelen had 7 days of rest, Gent 6.9 and had to travel 53 km.
Away travel53 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
KV Mechelen40%
Draw27%
Gent33%
KV Mechelen41%
Draw27%
Gent32%
KV Mechelen40%
Draw27%
Gent33%
KV Mechelen33%
Draw27%
Gent40%
KV Mechelen41%
Draw27%
Gent32%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Malines)
No weather data yet
RefereeNicolas Laforge
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 22
Team strength
KV Mechelen
Gent
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
18
AttackIn forecast
46
23
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KV MechelenGent
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
100%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
7.00
ShotsContext
14.33
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
48%
On target shareContext
33%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
62%
Box shareContext
64%
19%
ConversionContext
9%
1.50
OffsidesContext
3.33
19.67
Shots allowedContext
10.33
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
6.67
BlocksContext
1.50
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
85%
Save rateContext
64%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
385
PassesContext
481
325
Accurate passesContext
393
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.71
8.67
FoulsContext
10.67
7.67
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
0.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.57
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
90%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.20
ShotsContext
13.30
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
38%
On target shareContext
34%
6.63
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
64%
Box shareContext
66%
17%
ConversionContext
8%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.88
16.40
Shots allowedContext
11.70
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
4.60
BlocksContext
3.00
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
80%
Save rateContext
77%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
427
PassesContext
487
340
Accurate passesContext
404
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.98
8.30
FoulsContext
13.00
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KV Mechelen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km63 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gent
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel53 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KV Mechelen |
Gent |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 9 Aug | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 9 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 53 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 63 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 14.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
3José Marsà
2R. Halhal
33T. St. Jago
77P. Pflücke
16R. Schoofs
6F. Hammar
7T. Koudou
35B. Bafdili
14B. Raman
20L. Lauberbach
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden
3M. Paskotši
22Leonardo Lopes
20Tiago Araújo
15A. Ito
17M. Delorge-Knieper
6O. Gandelman
18M. Samoise
45B. Goore
7A. Kanga
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Gent
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KV Mechelen+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Gent-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
KV Mechelen · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Gent · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 KV Mechelen wins0 draws1 Gent wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 19 Jan 2024Gent1–2KV Mechelen
- 6 Aug 2023KV Mechelen0–1Gent
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KV Mechelen | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.33 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| KV Mechelen | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.33 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KV Mechelen | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.33 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 10.66 | 10.66 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 0.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.67 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| KV Mechelen | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 10.90 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.50 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nicolas Laforge 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.64league 3.77
Red cards0.18league 0.19
Cards 5+50%league 35%
Fouls23.0league 23.4
Penalties0.50league 0.46
Home wins45%league 46%
KV Mechelen3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.2.7 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D10 Dec 23H · Club Brugge KV0–03
- L7 Oct 23A · Anderlecht1–33
- L6 Aug 23H · Gent0–12
Gent6 with this referee
Record2-3-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L4 Feb 24A · Anderlecht0–14
- D3 Dec 23A · Genk2–22
- W29 Oct 23H · Standard Liege3–12
- D27 Sep 23A · Antwerp0–01
- D17 Sep 23A · OH Leuven1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KV Mechelen3 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Gent3 games · scored 4 · conceded 6
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
6
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
