KV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
St. Truiden were slight favourites.
St. Truiden were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for St. Truiden. KV Mechelen had 21.9 days of rest, St. Truiden 21.1 and had to travel.
Rest days21.9 · 21.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
KV Mechelen34%
Draw24%
St. Truiden42%
KV Mechelen34%
Draw26%
St. Truiden40%
KV Mechelen34%
Draw24%
St. Truiden42%
KV Mechelen27%
Draw23%
St. Truiden50%
KV Mechelen34%
Draw24%
St. Truiden42%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Malines)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Verbeke
- Cards per match 2.9
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 28
Team strength
KV Mechelen
St. Truiden
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
35
18
AttackIn forecast
37
23
DefenceIn forecast
32
9
Form indexContext
29
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSt. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KV MechelenSt. Truiden
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.71
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
2.21
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.08
-0.40
Goals minus xGContext
-0.50
29%
Scored inContext
57%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
11.57
ShotsContext
17.00
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.83
27%
On target shareContext
24%
8.29
Shots in the boxContext
11.86
69%
Box shareContext
67%
6%
ConversionContext
10%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.14
Shots allowedContext
14.43
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.14
3.14
BlocksContext
3.14
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.71
58%
Save rateContext
72%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
417
PassesContext
508
329
Accurate passesContext
430
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.49
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.29
FoulsContext
9.86
13.86
Fouls sufferedContext
9.29
1.43
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
2.04
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.24
40%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.00
ShotsContext
16.25
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.57
27%
On target shareContext
25%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
11.13
66%
Box shareContext
66%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.29
14.10
Shots allowedContext
13.50
5.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.63
3.56
BlocksContext
3.00
3.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
63%
Save rateContext
73%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
402
PassesContext
493
315
Accurate passesContext
416
78%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.54
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.20
FoulsContext
10.00
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.90
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KV Mechelen
LDLLD
Rest21.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 9 · 2 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -3.8 vs expected
St. Truiden
WLWLL
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 29 · 6 pts vs 8.6 for an average club · -2.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KV Mechelen |
St. Truiden |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 21.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12.1 | 13.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
3José Marsà
44M. Eerdhuijzen
20K. Corbanie
7T. Koudou
30Marco Decherf
6F. Hammar
23S. Michez
9M. van Brederode
14B. Raman
28B. Boersma
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata
5S. Taniguchi
4K. Takai
60R. Vanwesemael
8A. Sissako
14R. Merlen
10I. Sebaoui
71R. Araki
38Kaito Matsuzawa
9S. Baždar
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KV Mechelen · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.67
St. Truiden · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | KV Mechelen | St. Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| Lommel United | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–4 H | L 0–2 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 2–2 A | W 4–0 H |
| Points | 2 of 9 · 0.67 per game | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 KV Mechelen wins0 draws6 St. Truiden wins
Goals per game0.33 – 2.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 24 May 2026St. Truiden3–0KV Mechelen
- 26 Apr 2026KV Mechelen1–4St. Truiden
- 21 Dec 2025St. Truiden1–0KV Mechelen
- 4 Oct 2025KV Mechelen1–3St. Truiden
- 3 Dec 2023KV Mechelen0–2St. Truiden
- 17 Sep 2023St. Truiden2–0KV Mechelen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KV Mechelen | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 3.43 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 57% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 43% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 71% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| KV Mechelen | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.50 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KV Mechelen | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.71 | 3.86 | |
| Match total | 8.71 | 8.86 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.43 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 1.14 | |
| Match total | 3.29 | 2.85 | 3.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| KV Mechelen | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 7.70 | 8.40 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.30 | 3.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Verbeke 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.75league 3.10
Red cards0.14league 0.20
Cards 5+21%league 27%
Fouls21.5league 22.0
Penalties0.25league 0.24
Home wins46%league 48%
KV Mechelen1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D21 Sep 25H · Cercle Brugge0–01
St. Truiden5 with this referee
Record4-0-1
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W5 Sep 26H · RAAL La Louvière4–01
- W8 Mar 26H · Cercle Brugge2–10
- L31 Jan 26H · Charleroi0–23
- W23 Nov 25A · OH Leuven2–12
- W17 Aug 25H · RAAL La Louvière2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KV Mechelen7 games · scored 5 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
St. Truiden7 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 9 · conceded 21
2
3
0-15
5
16-30
1
6
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
6
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
