KV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Standard Liege were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Standard Liege. KV Mechelen had 7.2 days of rest, Standard Liege 8 and had to travel 88 km.
Away travel88 kmRest days7.2 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
KV Mechelen37%
Draw26%
Standard Liege38%
KV Mechelen40%
Draw26%
Standard Liege34%
KV Mechelen37%
Draw26%
Standard Liege38%
KV Mechelen30%
Draw25%
Standard Liege45%
KV Mechelen36%
Draw26%
Standard Liege38%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Malines)
No weather data yet
RefereeBram Van Driessche
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 50
Team strength
KV Mechelen
Standard Liege
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
18
AttackIn forecast
29
23
DefenceIn forecast
29
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStandard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KV MechelenStandard Liege
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
60%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.60
ShotsContext
11.20
2.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
27%
On target shareContext
38%
5.22
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
57%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.71
14.70
Shots allowedContext
16.70
6.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.78
BlocksContext
4.90
4.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
66%
Save rateContext
77%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
395
PassesContext
374
311
Accurate passesContext
292
79%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.96
9.00
FoulsContext
7.80
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KV Mechelen
L
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km107 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 38 · 0 pts vs 1.4 for an average club · -1.0 vs expected
- L9 AugA · Gent0–21.0 xPts
Standard Liege
D
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel88 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 1 pts vs 2.0 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected
- D8 AugH · Cercle Brugge2–21.7 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KV Mechelen |
Standard Liege |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 9 Aug | 8Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 8 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 88 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 107 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
3José Marsà
5L. Hjelde
2L. Marijnissen
39M. Decoene
6F. Hammar
8D. Salifou
9M. van Brederode
26D. Praet
7T. Koudou
19M. Lohunanu-Mbasi
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
1M. Epolo(G)
3Gustav Mortensen
25I. Hautekiet
20I. Karamoko
13M. Fossey
84R. Touzghar
22A. Trouillet
94C. Nielsen
11A. Abid
10D. Eckert Ayensa
17Bernard Nguene
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Standard Liege
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KV Mechelen · Home
No home games yet this season.
Standard Liege · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 KV Mechelen wins2 draws1 Standard Liege wins
Goals per game1.25 – 0.75
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 28 Nov 2025KV Mechelen0–1Standard Liege
- 12 Sep 2025Standard Liege1–1KV Mechelen
- 20 Dec 2023KV Mechelen3–0Standard Liege
- 5 Nov 2023Standard Liege1–1KV Mechelen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KV Mechelen | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.00 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| KV Mechelen | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.30 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KV Mechelen | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 1.00 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 11.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 18.00 | 10.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| KV Mechelen | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.10 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 7.30 | |
| Match total | 7.10 | 11.10 | 10.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.10 | 2.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bram Van Driessche 50 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.06league 2.56
Red cards0.22league 0.13
Cards 5+38%league 25%
Fouls21.3league 21.5
Penalties0.20league 0.25
Home wins50%league 50%
KV Mechelen7 with this referee
Record2-1-4
Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L22 Apr 26A · Club Brugge KV1–63
- L17 Jan 26A · Union St. Gilloise0–12
- W23 Nov 25A · Genk1–05
- W28 Sep 25A · Charleroi2–04
- L24 Aug 25A · Antwerp1–23
Standard Liege6 with this referee
Record2-0-4
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- W8 May 26H · OH Leuven2–10
- W18 Apr 26A · Charleroi2–11
- L8 Feb 26A · Club Brugge KV0–32
- L5 Oct 25A · Anderlecht0–13
- L16 Aug 25A · Union St. Gilloise0–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KV Mechelen1 games · scored 0 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Standard Liege1 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 8 · conceded 25
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
5
61-75
1
5
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
2
0-15
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
