KV Mechelen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
KV Mechelen35.9%fair odds 2.79
Draw27.2%fair odds 3.68
Standard Liege36.9%fair odds 2.71
Expected goals1.33 – 1.35total 2.68
Likeliest score1–113.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Standard Liege
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| KV Mechelen ↓ · Standard Liege → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are KV Mechelen goals, columns Standard Liege goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%7.72
- 0–18.6%11.64
- 1–08.4%11.85
- 1–28.3%12.02
- 2–18.2%12.22
- 0–07.5%13.37
- 0–26.3%15.99
- 2–06.0%16.54
- 2–25.5%18.06
- 1–33.8%26.65
Winning margin
5.8%
KV Mechelen by 3+
fair 17.25
10.6%
KV Mechelen by 2
fair 9.43
19.5%
KV Mechelen by 1
fair 5.13
27.2%
Draw
fair 3.68
19.8%
Standard Liege by 1
fair 5.05
11.0%
Standard Liege by 2
fair 9.12
6.1%
Standard Liege by 3+
fair 16.30
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
KV Mechelen goals
26%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
Standard Liege goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen win | 35.9% | 35.8% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 27.2% | 27.0% | +0.3 pp |
| Standard Liege win | 36.9% | 37.2% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.2% | 51.3% | -1.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.2% | 56.0% | -0.8 pp |
| Expected goals KV Mechelen | 1.33 | 1.35 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals Standard Liege | 1.35 | 1.38 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- KV Mechelen win35.9%2.79
- Draw27.2%3.68
- Standard Liege win36.9%2.71
- Double chance KV Mechelen or draw63.1%1.59
- Double chance KV Mechelen or Standard Liege72.8%1.37
- Double chance Standard Liege or draw64.1%1.56
- Draw no bet KV Mechelen49.3%2.03
- Draw no bet Standard Liege50.7%1.97
Goals
- Over 0.592.5%1.08
- Over 1.575.5%1.32
- Over 2.550.2%1.99
- Over 3.528.2%3.54
- Over 4.513.5%7.42
- Under 1.524.5%4.08
- Under 2.549.8%2.01
- Under 3.571.8%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes55.2%1.81
- No44.8%2.23
- Yes and over 2.542.3%2.37
- KV Mechelen win and yes17.5%5.71
- Draw and yes19.7%5.07
- Standard Liege win and yes18.0%5.57
Team goals
- KV Mechelen over 0.573.6%1.36
- KV Mechelen over 1.538.4%2.60
- KV Mechelen over 2.515.0%6.67
- Standard Liege over 0.574.2%1.35
- Standard Liege over 1.539.2%2.55
- Standard Liege over 2.515.5%6.44
- KV Mechelen clean sheet25.8%3.87
- Standard Liege clean sheet26.4%3.78
- KV Mechelen win to nil18.4%5.45
- Standard Liege win to nil18.9%5.28
Handicap
- KV Mechelen −1.516.4%6.10
- KV Mechelen −2.55.8%17.25
- Standard Liege +1.583.6%1.20
- Standard Liege +2.594.2%1.06
- Standard Liege −1.517.1%5.85
- KV Mechelen +1.582.9%1.21
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored16
Favourite won62.5%
Avg chance given to result45.8%
1X2 Brier0.505
Over 2.5 called right68.8%
BTTS called right68.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 8 | 45.1% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 4 | 54.9% | 75.0% |
| 60–70% | 2 | 63.4% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 86.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 16 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 16 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.