KV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
KV Mechelen
6th · 20 pts · 13 played
WLWDL
1–1Full time
Union St. Gilloise
1st · 32 pts · 13 played
WLWWW
Our take
Union St. Gilloise were slight favourites.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 32). KV Mechelen had 7.9 days of rest, Union St. Gilloise 8.1 and had to travel 21 km.
Away travel21 kmRest days7.9 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
KV Mechelen28%
Draw27%
Union St. Gilloise45%
KV Mechelen28%
Draw27%
Union St. Gilloise45%
KV Mechelen28%
Draw27%
Union St. Gilloise45%
KV Mechelen22%
Draw25%
Union St. Gilloise52%
KV Mechelen28%
Draw27%
Union St. Gilloise45%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Malines)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumLawrence Visser
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 36
Team strength
KV MechelenUnion St. Gilloise
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
18
AttackIn forecast
62
23
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KV MechelenUnion St. Gilloise
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.15
1.23
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.54
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.93
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.69
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
92%
Scored inContext
85%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
54%
10.62
ShotsContext
15.15
4.23
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.08
40%
On target shareContext
40%
7.58
Shots in the boxContext
11.50
68%
Box shareContext
76%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
1.67
OffsidesContext
3.08
15.46
Shots allowedContext
9.08
4.77
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.17
4.77
BlocksContext
2.62
4.42
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
88%
Save rateContext
79%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
386
PassesContext
418
317
Accurate passesContext
341
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.92
Team ratingContext
7.03
9.23
FoulsContext
12.54
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.23
2.15
Yellow cardsContext
2.15
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
90%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.70
ShotsContext
13.70
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
39%
On target shareContext
37%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
69%
Box shareContext
71%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.71
OffsidesContext
3.00
14.20
Shots allowedContext
11.40
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.20
BlocksContext
3.50
4.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
89%
Save rateContext
63%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
387
PassesContext
340
314
Accurate passesContext
268
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.85
9.40
FoulsContext
13.20
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.90
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KV Mechelen
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km43 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Union St. Gilloise
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel21 km130 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KV Mechelen |
Union St. Gilloise |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 1 Nov | 8.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 21 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 43 km | 130 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.8 | 12.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
18Ian Struyf
2R. Halhal
33T. St. Jago
3José Marsà
17Mathis Servais
6F. Hammar
7T. Koudou
9M. van Brederode
14B. Raman
20L. Lauberbach
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
37K. Scherpen(G)
48F. Leysen
16C. Burgess
5K. Mac Allister
22O. Niang
17R. Schoofs
6K. Van de Perre
8A. Zorgane
25A. Khalaili
13K. Rodríguez
10A. Ait El Hadj
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KV Mechelen · Home
1.50points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Union St. Gilloise · Away
2.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-1
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 0.86
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | KV Mechelen | Union St. Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| OH Leuven | D 1–1 H | W 5–0 H |
| Dender | W 3–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| St. Truiden | L 1–3 H | W 2–0 H |
| Charleroi | W 2–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Standard Liege | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 3–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Antwerp | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Gent | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| KVC Westerlo | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Club Brugge KV | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 1–1 A | W 4–1 A |
| Points | 19 of 36 · 1.58 per game | 29 of 36 · 2.42 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 KV Mechelen wins0 draws1 Union St. Gilloise wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 17 Dec 2023Union St. Gilloise1–0KV Mechelen
- 19 Aug 2023KV Mechelen4–0Union St. Gilloise
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KV Mechelen | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 2.15 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.23 | 0.54 | |
| Match goals | 2.62 | 2.69 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 46% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 77% | 38% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 54% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 15% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| KV Mechelen | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.30 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KV Mechelen | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.77 | 5.46 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.69 | 3.92 | |
| Match total | 11.46 | 9.38 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 9/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 69% 9/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 62% 8/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.15 | 2.15 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.46 | 2.15 | |
| Match total | 3.61 | 4.30 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 8/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 23% 3/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| KV Mechelen | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.80 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 11.70 | 9.40 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.80 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lawrence Visser Belgium · 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.08league 3.83
Red cards0.39league 0.21
Cards 5+64%league 41%
Fouls23.0league 23.1
Penalties0.11league 0.28
Home wins42%league 45%
KV Mechelen1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W24 Feb 24H · Kortrijk3–00
Union St. Gilloise2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W2 Mar 24A · OH Leuven2–03
- L16 Sep 23H · Genk0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KV Mechelen13 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
3
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
7
76-90
Union St. Gilloise13 games · scored 28 · conceded 7
4
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
7
61-75
7
3
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
6
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
