Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Mar 14 · 19:45 Het Kuipje, Westerlo
KVC Westerlo 8th · 38 pts · 28 played
First leg5–5 1–2Full time
Club Brugge KV 2nd · 57 pts · 28 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Club Brugge KV were slight favourites.

Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for KVC Westerlo. KVC Westerlo had 7.2 days of rest, Club Brugge KV 6.3 and had to travel 119 km.

Away travel119 kmRest days7.2 · 6.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
KVC Westerlo24%
Draw25%
Club Brugge KV51%
Expected goals 1.14 – 1.74
KVC Westerlo23%
Draw25%
Club Brugge KV52%
Expected goals 1.06 – 1.69
KVC Westerlo24%
Draw25%
Club Brugge KV51%
Expected goals 1.14 – 1.74
KVC Westerlo19%
Draw23%
Club Brugge KV59%
Expected goals 1.02 – 1.95
KVC Westerlo25%
Draw25%
Club Brugge KV50%
Expected goals 1.13 – 1.69
Over 2.5 55% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Westerlo)

No weather data yet

RefereeBram Van Driessche
  • Cards per match 4.3
  • Penalties per match 0.20
  • Matches 41

Team strength

KVC WesterloClub Brugge KV
28 L90 StrengthIn forecast 65
33 Current StrengthIn forecast 75
42 AttackIn forecast 86
32 DefenceIn forecast 58
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

KVC Westerlo

Attack—
Defense risk—

Club Brugge KV

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

KVC WesterloClub Brugge KV
1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.89
1.36 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.21
1.40 xGVia Att/Def 1.52
1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11
-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.37
61% Scored inContext 86%
36% Clean sheetsContext 29%
13.64 ShotsContext 15.82
4.59 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
33% On target shareContext 35%
9.48 Shots in the boxContext 11.25
67% Box shareContext 70%
9% ConversionContext 12%
1.53 OffsidesContext 2.06
12.54 Shots allowedContext 11.61
3.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.96
4.13 BlocksContext 2.71
2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.04
67% Save rateContext 72%
49% PossessionIn forecast 63%
374 PassesContext 565
297 Accurate passesContext 493
79% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.87 Team ratingContext 7.02
11.21 FoulsContext 9.18
11.96 Fouls sufferedContext 11.36
1.64 Yellow cardsContext 1.29
0.07 Red cardsContext 0.07
This league season, per match · 28 and 28 games
0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60
1.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.74
1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28
-0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.46
60% Scored inContext 90%
40% Clean sheetsContext 20%
10.90 ShotsContext 14.80
4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50
39% On target shareContext 44%
7.22 Shots in the boxContext 10.60
65% Box shareContext 69%
8% ConversionContext 15%
1.83 OffsidesContext 2.14
13.30 Shots allowedContext 11.70
3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.78
4.33 BlocksContext 3.10
2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11
62% Save rateContext 65%
50% PossessionIn forecast 62%
382 PassesContext 582
299 Accurate passesContext 509
78% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.81 Team ratingContext 6.95
11.00 FoulsContext 8.60
12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.70
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

KVC Westerlo
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km59 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Club Brugge KV
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel119 km247 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
KVC Westerlo Club Brugge KV
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 7 Mar6.3Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 8 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km119 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways59 km247 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one7.97.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

KVC Westerlo Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
99A. Jungdal(G)
5Seiji Kimura 33R. Neustädter 40E. Bayram 22B. Reynolds
46A. Piedfort 34D. Haspolat
77J. Alcócer 13I. Sakamoto 38Shunsuke Saito
90Nacho Ferri
Club Brugge KV Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
22S. Mignolet(G)
65J. Seys 58J. Spileers 4J. Ordoñez 64K. Sabbe
15R. Onyedika 25A. Stanković
8C. Tzolis 20H. Vanaken 9Carlos Forbs
7N. Tresoldi

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
KVC Westerlo Absences are shown before kick-off
Club Brugge KV Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

KVC Westerlo · Home 1.50points per game · 14 home games
W-D-L
6-3-5
Scored
1.14
Conceded
1.00
Club Brugge KV · Away 1.79points per game · 14 away games
W-D-L
8-1-5
Scored
1.64
Conceded
1.14

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

OpponentKVC WesterloClub Brugge KV
OH Leuven W 1–0 AW 2–0 H W 2–1 HW 1–0 A
Union St. Gilloise D 0–0 HL 0–2 A L 0–1 AW 1–0 H
Charleroi W 2–1 HL 0–2 A W 2–1 AW 1–0 H
Antwerp W 2–0 AW 2–0 H L 0–1 HW 1–0 A
St. Truiden L 0–4 HW 3–0 A L 2–3 AW 2–0 H
Zulte Waregem W 1–0 AW 3–1 H W 4–3 HW 1–0 A
KV Mechelen D 1–1 AL 0–1 H L 1–2 A
Cercle Brugge L 0–2 HL 1–4 A W 2–1 AW 2–0 H
Gent L 0–2 AD 0–0 H W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
RAAL La Louvière W 2–1 HD 0–0 A L 2–3 HL 0–1 A
Genk D 1–1 AL 0–1 H W 5–3 AW 2–1 H
Anderlecht W 4–0 HL 2–5 A D 2–2 HL 0–1 A
Dender D 2–2 AD 1–1 H W 5–1 AW 2–1 H
Standard Liege L 0–2 H W 3–0 HW 2–1 A
Points37 of 81 · 1.37 per game56 of 81 · 2.07 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 KVC Westerlo wins1 draws2 Club Brugge KV wins
Goals per game1.67 – 3.00 Over 2.567% Both scored33% Clean sheets0% · 67%
  • 24 Sep 2025Club Brugge KV5–5KVC Westerlo
  • 20 Jan 2024Club Brugge KV3–0KVC Westerlo
  • 6 Aug 2023KVC Westerlo0–1Club Brugge KV

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

KVC WesterloClub Brugge KVForecast
Scored per game 1.251.89
Conceded per game 1.361.21
Match goals 2.613.11 2.88
Over 1.5 75%68%
Over 2.5 36%57% 55%
Over 3.5 25%25%
Both teams scored 36%57% 57%
Clean sheets 36%29%
Failed to score 39%14%
Games2828
KVC WesterloClub Brugge KVForecast
Scored per game 0.902.40
Conceded per game 1.101.60
Match goals 2.004.00 2.88
Over 1.5 70%90%
Over 2.5 30%90% 55%
Over 3.5 10%40%
Both teams scored 30%80% 57%
Clean sheets 40%10%
Failed to score 40%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

KVC WesterloClub Brugge KVLeague
Corners
Corners won5.006.54
Corners conceded5.004.54
Match total10.0011.089.89
Over 8.567% 18/2783% 20/24
Over 9.556% 15/2775% 18/24
Over 10.556% 15/2763% 15/24
Cards
Cards1.751.36
Opponent cards1.862.39
Match total3.613.754.05
Over 3.557% 16/2854% 15/28
Over 4.532% 9/2832% 9/28
KVC WesterloClub Brugge KVLeague
Corners
Corners won4.566.63
Corners conceded5.333.88
Match total9.8910.519.89
Over 8.567% 6/988% 7/8
Over 9.544% 4/950% 4/8
Over 10.544% 4/938% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.901.40
Opponent cards1.802.20
Match total3.703.604.05
Over 3.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Bram Van Driessche 41 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.10league 3.83
Red cards0.24league 0.19
Cards 5+39%league 40%
Fouls22.0league 22.7
Penalties0.20league 0.32
Home wins51%league 41%
KVC Westerlo5 with this referee
Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.2 Pens for · against1 · 0
  • W31 Jan 26A · Zulte Waregem1–02
  • W14 Sep 25A · St. Truiden3–02
  • L1 Mar 24H · Charleroi0–11
  • D23 Dec 23A · Antwerp2–21
  • L25 Nov 23A · Charleroi2–32
Club Brugge KV4 with this referee
Record3-0-1 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1
  • W8 Feb 26H · Standard Liege3–00
  • L6 Dec 25A · St. Truiden2–31
  • W29 Oct 23H · Antwerp2–14
  • W16 Sep 23H · Charleroi4–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

KVC Westerlo28 games · scored 35 · conceded 38
7 3 0-15
5 6 16-30
5 12 31-45
6 3 46-60
7 4 61-75
5 10 76-90
Club Brugge KV28 games · scored 53 · conceded 34
4 5 0-15
7 5 16-30
8 6 31-45
11 5 46-60
9 4 61-75
14 9 76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
2 2 0-15
3 3 16-30
1 3 31-45
46-60
1 61-75
2 3 76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 22 · conceded 16
3 1 0-15
2 16-30
5 5 31-45
7 3 46-60
2 1 61-75
5 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Gent Zulte Waregem 20 Charleroi OH Leuven 02 Union St. Gilloise Dender 20 KVC Westerlo Club Brugge KV 12 Genk St. Truiden 10 Antwerp Standard Liege 11 KV Mechelen Anderlecht 10 Cercle Brugge RAAL La Louvière 13