KVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Gent were slight favourites.
Gent were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 22). KVC Westerlo had 14 days of rest, Gent 13 and had to travel 84 km.
Away travel84 kmRest days14 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1
KVC Westerlo32%
Draw27%
Gent41%
KVC Westerlo32%
Draw27%
Gent41%
KVC Westerlo32%
Draw27%
Gent41%
KVC Westerlo26%
Draw26%
Gent49%
KVC Westerlo32%
Draw27%
Gent41%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Westerlo)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Put
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 22
Team strength
KVC Westerlo
Gent
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
42
AttackIn forecast
46
32
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KVC WesterloGent
1.36
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.64
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
57%
Scored inContext
86%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
15.14
ShotsContext
13.14
4.77
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.71
29%
On target shareContext
36%
10.57
Shots in the boxContext
8.43
68%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.93
Shots allowedContext
13.07
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.14
3.82
BlocksContext
4.18
2.93
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.92
65%
Save rateContext
75%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
380
PassesContext
474
306
Accurate passesContext
396
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.36
FoulsContext
10.86
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.36
1.43
Yellow cardsContext
1.64
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
50%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.60
ShotsContext
12.10
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
30%
On target shareContext
35%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
69%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
15%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.33
11.30
Shots allowedContext
14.70
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.63
BlocksContext
4.78
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.44
72%
Save rateContext
78%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
378
PassesContext
465
307
Accurate passesContext
388
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.91
11.40
FoulsContext
11.10
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KVC Westerlo
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km165 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gent
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel84 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KVC Westerlo |
Gent |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 13Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 84 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 165 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
22B. Reynolds
5Seiji Kimura
40E. Bayram
23L. Mbamba-Muanda
34D. Haspolat
46A. Piedfort
18G. Yow
13I. Sakamoto
7A. Sayyadmanesh
90Nacho Ferri
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
20Tiago Araújo
2S. Kotto
3M. Paskotši
57Matties Volckaert
15A. Ito
17M. Delorge-Knieper
8M. Skóraś
37A. Kadri
6O. Gandelman
7A. Kanga
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Gent+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KVC Westerlo · Home
1.43points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-3
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 0.86
Gent · Away
1.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-4
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 2.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | KVC Westerlo | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| Charleroi | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Genk | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Dender | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| OH Leuven | W 2–0 H | L 0–4 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| Club Brugge KV | D 5–5 A | D 1–1 H |
| Standard Liege | L 0–2 H | W 4–0 H |
| St. Truiden | W 3–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Antwerp | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | L 1–4 A | W 4–2 A |
| KV Mechelen | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Zulte Waregem | W 3–1 H | L 1–4 A |
| Anderlecht | L 2–5 A | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 15 of 42 · 1.07 per game | 21 of 42 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 KVC Westerlo wins1 draws1 Gent wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 27 Jan 2024Gent2–2KVC Westerlo
- 13 Aug 2023KVC Westerlo1–3Gent
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KVC Westerlo | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.36 | 1.64 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 3.07 | 3.21 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 64% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 64% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 14% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| KVC Westerlo | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 70% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KVC Westerlo | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.07 | 4.85 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.79 | 4.85 | |
| Match total | 9.86 | 9.70 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 9/14 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 8/14 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 8/14 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.43 | 1.79 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.79 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 3.22 | 3.93 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 7/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 21% 3/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| KVC Westerlo | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.11 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.50 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Put 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.36league 3.85
Red cards0.14league 0.22
Cards 5+36%league 42%
Fouls24.1league 23.1
Penalties0.27league 0.28
Home wins36%league 45%
KVC Westerlo2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W30 Jan 24H · Cercle Brugge4–23
- D22 Sep 23A · Standard Liege0–03
Gent5 with this referee
Record3-0-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- W28 Sep 25A · Cercle Brugge4–23
- L27 Jul 25A · St. Truiden1–31
- W18 Feb 24A · AS Eupen2–01
- W21 Dec 23H · OH Leuven4–00
- L22 Oct 23A · Cercle Brugge0–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KVC Westerlo14 games · scored 19 · conceded 24
3
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
8
31-45
4
2
46-60
5
4
61-75
3
6
76-90
Gent14 games · scored 23 · conceded 22
3
1
0-15
2
6
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
9
5
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
3
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
