KVC Westerlo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
KVC Westerlo32.0%fair odds 3.13
Draw26.9%fair odds 3.71
Gent41.1%fair odds 2.43
Expected goals1.25 – 1.45total 2.71
Likeliest score1–112.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Gent
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| KVC Westerlo ↓ · Gent → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are KVC Westerlo goals, columns Gent goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%7.81
- 0–19.1%11.04
- 1–28.8%11.32
- 1–07.7%12.94
- 2–17.6%13.12
- 0–07.3%13.65
- 0–27.0%14.20
- 2–25.5%18.06
- 2–05.2%19.05
- 1–34.3%23.39
Winning margin
4.7%
KVC Westerlo by 3+
fair 21.45
9.3%
KVC Westerlo by 2
fair 10.80
18.1%
KVC Westerlo by 1
fair 5.54
26.9%
Draw
fair 3.71
21.0%
Gent by 1
fair 4.76
12.4%
Gent by 2
fair 8.05
7.7%
Gent by 3+
fair 13.05
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
KVC Westerlo goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
Gent goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KVC Westerlo win | 32.0% | 32.1% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 26.9% | 27.1% | -0.2 pp |
| Gent win | 41.1% | 40.9% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.8% | 50.2% | +0.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.4% | 54.9% | +0.5 pp |
| Expected goals KVC Westerlo | 1.25 | 1.25 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Gent | 1.45 | 1.44 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- KVC Westerlo win32.0%3.13
- Draw26.9%3.71
- Gent win41.1%2.43
- Double chance KVC Westerlo or draw58.9%1.70
- Double chance KVC Westerlo or Gent73.1%1.37
- Double chance Gent or draw68.0%1.47
- Draw no bet KVC Westerlo43.8%2.29
- Draw no bet Gent56.2%1.78
Goals
- Over 0.592.7%1.08
- Over 1.575.9%1.32
- Over 2.550.8%1.97
- Over 3.528.7%3.48
- Over 4.513.8%7.25
- Under 1.524.1%4.15
- Under 2.549.2%2.03
- Under 3.571.3%1.40
Both teams to score
- Yes55.4%1.81
- No44.6%2.24
- Yes and over 2.542.6%2.35
- KVC Westerlo win and yes15.9%6.29
- Draw and yes19.6%5.10
- Gent win and yes19.9%5.03
Team goals
- KVC Westerlo over 0.571.5%1.40
- KVC Westerlo over 1.535.7%2.80
- KVC Westerlo over 2.513.2%7.55
- Gent over 0.576.6%1.31
- Gent over 1.542.6%2.35
- Gent over 2.517.9%5.58
- KVC Westerlo clean sheet23.4%4.27
- Gent clean sheet28.5%3.50
- KVC Westerlo win to nil16.1%6.22
- Gent win to nil21.2%4.71
Handicap
- KVC Westerlo −1.513.9%7.18
- KVC Westerlo −2.54.7%21.45
- Gent +1.586.1%1.16
- Gent +2.595.3%1.05
- Gent −1.520.1%4.98
- KVC Westerlo +1.579.9%1.25
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored114
Favourite won47.4%
Avg chance given to result38.6%
1X2 Brier0.606
Over 2.5 called right52.6%
BTTS called right50.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 20 | 38.3% | 30.0% |
| 40–50% | 61 | 45.0% | 37.7% |
| 50–60% | 21 | 55.1% | 71.4% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 65.2% | 90.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 75.1% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 76 of 114 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6057 | 0.5980 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.9% | 39.9% |
| Favourite won | 47.4% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 76 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗Standard Liege 0–0 Zulte Waregem42·28·30
- ✗KV Mechelen 1–1 Union St. Gilloise28·27·45
- ✗Gent 1–1 Genk42·26·31
- ✓St. Truiden 1–0 Standard Liege45·27·28
- ✗Anderlecht 1–0 Club Brugge KV30·27·43
- ✓Antwerp 3–1 RAAL La Louvière48·27·25
- ✓Charleroi 2–0 KVC Westerlo42·27·31
- ✗Cercle Brugge 1–2 OH Leuven47·27·26
- ✗Dender 2–2 Zulte Waregem35·28·37
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 114 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.