KVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Union St. Gilloise were slight favourites.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Union St. Gilloise. KVC Westerlo had 139.1 days of rest, Union St. Gilloise 4 and had to travel 48 km.
Away travel48 kmRest days139.1 · 4Matches / 14d0 · 1
KVC Westerlo21%
Draw23%
Union St. Gilloise56%
KVC Westerlo23%
Draw24%
Union St. Gilloise53%
KVC Westerlo21%
Draw23%
Union St. Gilloise56%
KVC Westerlo16%
Draw20%
Union St. Gilloise63%
KVC Westerlo21%
Draw23%
Union St. Gilloise56%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Westerlo)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Put
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 31
Team strength
KVC Westerlo
Union St. Gilloise
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
42
AttackIn forecast
62
32
DefenceIn forecast
74
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KVC WesterloUnion St. Gilloise
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
—
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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—
Clean sheetsContext
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—
ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
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—
Box shareContext
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—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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—
Red cardsContext
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1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.50
ShotsContext
15.60
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
36%
On target shareContext
37%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.67
65%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
1.38
OffsidesContext
1.71
12.00
Shots allowedContext
8.80
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.25
3.10
BlocksContext
2.63
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.86
65%
Save rateContext
57%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
412
PassesContext
395
342
Accurate passesContext
317
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.81
Team ratingContext
7.03
9.70
FoulsContext
10.67
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.67
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KVC Westerlo
Rest139.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Union St. Gilloise
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel48 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KVC Westerlo |
Union St. Gilloise |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 139.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 22 Mar | 4UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 4 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 48 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
4A. Lapage
5Seiji Kimura
24Michée Ndembi
28Dylan Ourega
14C. Sandra
45I. Fofana
2L. Flø
7Shunsuke Saito
13I. Sakamoto
9N. Bassette
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
1V. Chambaere(G)
48F. Leysen
29M. Sylla
5K. Mac Allister
22O. Niang
23B. Zeneli
6K. Van de Perre
27L. Patris
17R. Schoofs
12P. David
30R. Florucz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KVC Westerlo · Home
No home games yet this season.
Union St. Gilloise · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 KVC Westerlo wins2 draws2 Union St. Gilloise wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 50%
- 1 Mar 2026KVC Westerlo0–0Union St. Gilloise
- 27 Sep 2025Union St. Gilloise2–0KVC Westerlo
- 10 Feb 2024Union St. Gilloise2–2KVC Westerlo
- 29 Oct 2023KVC Westerlo1–3Union St. Gilloise
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KVC Westerlo | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 54% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| KVC Westerlo | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.40 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KVC Westerlo | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 12.50 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 2.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| KVC Westerlo | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 9.11 | 12.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.90 | 2.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Put 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.74league 2.00
Red cards0.23league 0.00
Cards 5+45%league 0%
Fouls23.4league 19.0
Penalties0.35league 0.50
Home wins32%league 50%
KVC Westerlo5 with this referee
Record1-3-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D22 Mar 26A · Standard Liege0–01
- L17 Jan 26H · Cercle Brugge0–20
- D22 Nov 25H · Gent0–03
- W30 Jan 24H · Cercle Brugge4–23
- D22 Sep 23A · Standard Liege0–03
Union St. Gilloise2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 Dec 23H · KV Mechelen1–02
- W28 Sep 23A · RWDM3–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KVC WesterloUnion St. GilloiseKVC Westerlo10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
5
61-75
5
2
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
6
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
