KVC Westerlo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
KVC Westerlo20.7%fair odds 4.82
Draw24.0%fair odds 4.16
Union St. Gilloise55.2%fair odds 1.81
Expected goals1.04 – 1.82total 2.86
Likeliest score1–111.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Union St. Gilloise
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| KVC Westerlo ↓ · Union St. Gilloise → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 11.4 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are KVC Westerlo goals, columns Union St. Gilloise goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%8.77
- 0–19.9%10.12
- 1–29.9%10.13
- 0–29.5%10.50
- 0–06.3%15.86
- 1–36.0%16.67
- 0–35.8%17.27
- 2–15.6%17.84
- 1–05.4%18.64
- 2–25.1%19.57
Winning margin
2.2%
KVC Westerlo by 3+
fair 46.35
5.5%
KVC Westerlo by 2
fair 18.08
13.0%
KVC Westerlo by 1
fair 7.67
24.0%
Draw
fair 4.16
23.4%
Union St. Gilloise by 1
fair 4.28
17.1%
Union St. Gilloise by 2
fair 5.84
14.7%
Union St. Gilloise by 3+
fair 6.79
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
KVC Westerlo goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
Union St. Gilloise goals
16%0
29%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KVC Westerlo win | 20.7% | 20.7% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 24.0% | 23.9% | +0.1 pp |
| Union St. Gilloise win | 55.2% | 55.4% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 54.7% | -0.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.7% | 54.8% | -0.1 pp |
| Expected goals KVC Westerlo | 1.04 | 1.04 | -0.00 |
| Expected goals Union St. Gilloise | 1.82 | 1.83 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- KVC Westerlo win20.7%4.82
- Draw24.0%4.16
- Union St. Gilloise win55.2%1.81
- Double chance KVC Westerlo or draw44.8%2.23
- Double chance KVC Westerlo or Union St. Gilloise76.0%1.32
- Double chance Union St. Gilloise or draw79.3%1.26
- Draw no bet KVC Westerlo27.3%3.67
- Draw no bet Union St. Gilloise72.7%1.38
Goals
- Over 0.593.7%1.07
- Over 1.578.5%1.27
- Over 2.554.5%1.84
- Over 3.532.1%3.11
- Over 4.516.2%6.19
- Under 1.521.5%4.64
- Under 2.545.5%2.20
- Under 3.567.9%1.47
Both teams to score
- Yes54.7%1.83
- No45.3%2.21
- Yes and over 2.543.3%2.31
- KVC Westerlo win and yes10.9%9.19
- Draw and yes17.7%5.64
- Union St. Gilloise win and yes26.1%3.84
Team goals
- KVC Westerlo over 0.564.5%1.55
- KVC Westerlo over 1.527.7%3.60
- KVC Westerlo over 2.58.7%11.49
- Union St. Gilloise over 0.583.9%1.19
- Union St. Gilloise over 1.554.4%1.84
- Union St. Gilloise over 2.527.6%3.63
- KVC Westerlo clean sheet16.1%6.19
- Union St. Gilloise clean sheet35.5%2.82
- KVC Westerlo win to nil9.8%10.16
- Union St. Gilloise win to nil29.2%3.43
Handicap
- KVC Westerlo −1.57.7%13.01
- KVC Westerlo −2.52.2%46.35
- Union St. Gilloise +1.592.3%1.08
- Union St. Gilloise +2.597.8%1.02
- Union St. Gilloise −1.531.9%3.14
- KVC Westerlo +1.568.1%1.47
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored2
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result55.3%
1X2 Brier0.457
Over 2.5 called right100.0%
BTTS called right100.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 1 | 49.2% | 0.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 86.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 2 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 2 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.