Lazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 58). Lazio had 6.8 days of rest, AS Roma 7 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days6.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Lazio37%
Draw28%
AS Roma35%
Lazio37%
Draw27%
AS Roma36%
Lazio36%
Draw28%
AS Roma36%
Lazio30%
Draw28%
AS Roma42%
Lazio37%
Draw27%
AS Roma35%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalySimone Sozza
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.47
- Matches 75
Team strength
Lazio
AS Roma
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
69
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
53
AttackIn forecast
72
63
DefenceIn forecast
75
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LazioAS Roma
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.33
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.58
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.51
33%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
12.67
ShotsContext
15.33
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
26%
On target shareContext
30%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
67%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
4%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.00
13.67
Shots allowedContext
8.33
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
2.00
BlocksContext
1.00
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
77%
Save rateContext
89%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
522
PassesContext
525
464
Accurate passesContext
449
89%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.00
FoulsContext
11.67
16.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.33
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.68
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
16.00
ShotsContext
13.10
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
31%
On target shareContext
35%
11.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.44
68%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.88
OffsidesContext
1.00
10.00
Shots allowedContext
11.30
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
2.22
BlocksContext
2.75
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
73%
Save rateContext
89%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
514
PassesContext
455
450
Accurate passesContext
390
88%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.06
Team ratingContext
7.05
10.70
FoulsContext
10.60
14.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lazio
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km694 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AS Roma
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lazio |
AS Roma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Sep | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 694 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.3 | 3.4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lazio
Confirmed XI
94I. Provedel(G)
17Nuno Tavares
13A. Romagnoli
34Mario Gila
77A. Marušić
7O. Dele-Bashiru
6N. Rovella
8M. Guendouzi
10M. Zaccagni
19B. Dia
9Pedro
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
5O. Ndicka
23G. Mancini
19M. Çelik
3Angeliño
4B. Cristante
17K. Koné
2D. Rensch
7L. Pellegrini
11E. Ferguson
18M. Soulé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lazio
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AS Roma
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lazio+0.6 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AS Roma-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Lazio · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
AS Roma · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Lazio wins2 draws3 AS Roma wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.13
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets38% · 50%
- 13 Apr 2025Lazio1–1AS Roma
- 5 Jan 2025AS Roma2–0Lazio
- 6 Apr 2024AS Roma1–0Lazio
- 12 Nov 2023Lazio0–0AS Roma
- 19 Mar 2023Lazio1–0AS Roma
- 6 Nov 2022AS Roma0–1Lazio
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lazio | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 1.00 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 0% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Lazio | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 1.00 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 0% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lazio | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.50 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.33 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 3.00 | 3.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Lazio | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.56 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.56 | 9.10 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.70 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 6.60 | 3.50 | 3.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simone Sozza Italy · 75 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.31league 3.79
Red cards0.12league 0.09
Cards 5+43%league 41%
Fouls24.9league 25.7
Penalties0.47league 0.21
Home wins37%league 41%
Lazio6 with this referee
Record2-2-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D13 Apr 25H · AS Roma1–14
- W29 Sep 24A · Torino3–23
- L3 Sep 22H · Napoli1–24
- D22 Jan 22H · Atalanta0–00
- L12 Dec 21A · Sassuolo1–22
AS Roma13 with this referee
Record6-3-4
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.4
Pens for · against3 · 3
Reds1
- L12 May 25A · Atalanta1–20
- D13 Apr 25A · Lazio1–12
- W26 Jan 25A · Udinese2–12
- L27 Oct 24A · Fiorentina1–55
- D28 Apr 24A · Napoli2–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lazio3 games · scored 4 · conceded 3
2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
AS Roma3 games · scored 2 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
31-45
2
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 12 · conceded 5
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
