Lazio vs Genoa – 30 Aug 2026

Serie A Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 30 · 19:45 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

Lazio 11th · 3 pts · 1 played W

1–0Full time

Genoa 16th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lazio were slight favourites.

Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Genoa. Lazio had 6.1 days of rest, Genoa 8 and had to travel 402 km. Weather to note: heat stress.

Away travel402 kmRest days6.1 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Lazio54%

Draw24%

Genoa22%

Expected goals 1.71 – 0.99

Lazio58%

Draw22%

Genoa19%

Expected goals 1.85 – 0.97

Lazio55%

Draw24%

Genoa21%

Expected goals 1.72 – 0.95

Lazio47%

Draw26%

Genoa28%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.11

Lazio54%

Draw24%

Genoa22%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.00

Over 2.5 51% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

28°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 5 km/h
Humidity 62%

Heat stress

Referee · ItalyErmanno Feliciani

Cards per match 3.0
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 41

Team strength

Lazio

Genoa

55 L90 StrengthIn forecast 32

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 29

53 AttackIn forecast 23

63 DefenceIn forecast 44

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lazio

Attack—

Defense risk—

Genoa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lazio

Genoa

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.08 xGVia Att/Def 0.99

1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25

+0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.49

70% Scored inContext 30%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.10 ShotsContext 11.00

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.80

47% On target shareContext 26%

6.30 Shots in the boxContext 6.30

63% Box shareContext 58%

13% ConversionContext 5%

2.17 OffsidesContext 1.38

11.50 Shots allowedContext 11.70

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

2.40 BlocksContext 3.22

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38

67% Save rateContext 69%

49% PossessionIn forecast 52%

483 PassesContext 410

428 Accurate passesContext 340

89% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.74

12.30 FoulsContext 9.60

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lazio W

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km609 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 66 · 3 pts vs 1.1 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected

W24 AugA · Bologna1–01.1 xPts

Genoa L

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel402 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 39 · 0 pts vs 1.3 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected

L22 AugH · Napoli0–21.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lazio	Genoa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Serie A 2026-2027, 24 Aug	8Serie A 2026-2027, 22 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	402 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	609 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	8	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lazio Confirmed XI

4-3-3

35C. Mandas(G)

17Nuno Tavares 25Oliver Provstgaard 5D. Doekhi 15R. Floriani Mussolini

24K. Taylor 6N. Rovella 16D. Frattesi

10M. Zaccagni 19B. Dia 22M. Cancellieri

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Genoa Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1J. Bijlow(G)

22J. Vásquez 5L. Østigård 27A. Marcandalli

15B. Norton-Cuffy 97M. Sow 32M. Frendrup 77M. Ellertsson

9Vítinha 8T. Baldanzi

29L. Colombo

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lazio Absences are shown before kick-off

Genoa Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lazio-1.1 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Genoa+1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Lazio · Home No home games yet this season.

Genoa · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

7 Lazio wins0 draws1 Genoa wins

Goals per game2.38 – 0.63 Over 2.563% Both scored38% Clean sheets50% · 13%

30 Jan 2026Lazio3–2Genoa
29 Sep 2025Genoa0–3Lazio
23 Apr 2025Genoa0–2Lazio
27 Oct 2024Lazio3–0Genoa
19 Apr 2024Genoa0–1Lazio
27 Aug 2023Lazio0–1Genoa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lazio	Genoa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.00
Conceded per game	0.00	2.00
Match goals	1.00	2.00	2.70
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	51%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	52%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	Lazio	Genoa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	0.50
Conceded per game	1.20	1.30
Match goals	2.50	1.80	2.70
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	30%	51%
Over 3.5	10%	0%
Both teams scored	40%	30%	52%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	30%	70%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lazio	Genoa	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	5.00
Corners conceded	8.00	5.00
Match total	14.00	10.00	8.75
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	4.00	2.00
Opponent cards	4.00	1.00
Match total	8.00	3.00	3.38
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	Lazio	Genoa	League
Corners
Corners won	4.44	4.40
Corners conceded	3.67	3.50
Match total	8.11	7.90	8.75
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	0% 0/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.20
Opponent cards	1.90	2.70
Match total	4.40	3.90	3.38
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ermanno Feliciani Italy · 41 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.93league 3.38

Red cards0.02league 0.00

Cards 5+15%league 19%

Fouls22.9league 24.1

Penalties0.27league 0.00

Home wins54%league 38%

Lazio3 with this referee

Record3-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7 Pens for · against0 · 2

W22 Mar 26A · Bologna2–01
W19 Apr 24A · Genoa1–02
W29 Dec 23H · Frosinone3–13

Genoa6 with this referee

Record1-3-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.7 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

W3 Nov 25A · Sassuolo2–13
D8 Feb 25A · Torino1–12
D17 Aug 24H · Inter2–21
L19 Apr 24H · Lazio0–11
L9 Mar 24H · Monza2–31

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.