Lazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were slight favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 55). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lazio. Lazio had 5 days of rest, Inter 5.9 and had to travel 479 km.
Away travel479 kmRest days5 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Lazio29%
Draw27%
Inter44%
Lazio24%
Draw26%
Inter50%
Lazio30%
Draw28%
Inter43%
Lazio23%
Draw26%
Inter51%
Lazio30%
Draw26%
Inter44%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyRosario Abisso
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 52
Team strength
Lazio
Inter
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
84
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
53
AttackIn forecast
91
63
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisInter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LazioInter
1.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.34
0.97
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.89
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.79
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.55
57%
Scored inContext
94%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
49%
10.80
ShotsContext
17.00
4.06
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.89
37%
On target shareContext
35%
6.71
Shots in the boxContext
12.11
60%
Box shareContext
72%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
1.68
OffsidesContext
1.94
12.83
Shots allowedContext
8.83
4.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.27
3.40
BlocksContext
2.97
3.21
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.43
77%
Save rateContext
75%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
485
PassesContext
534
420
Accurate passesContext
468
87%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.04
10.20
FoulsContext
13.06
14.54
Fouls sufferedContext
10.66
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.69
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
0.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.57
70%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.20
ShotsContext
14.80
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
40%
On target shareContext
33%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
11.60
64%
Box shareContext
77%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.67
11.30
Shots allowedContext
10.50
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
2.90
BlocksContext
3.25
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
74%
Save rateContext
69%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
525
PassesContext
540
467
Accurate passesContext
477
89%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.97
10.10
FoulsContext
11.90
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
8.50
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lazio
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km825 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Inter
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel479 km251 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lazio |
Inter |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Serie A 2025-2026, 4 May | 5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 3 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 479 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 825 km | 251 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lazio
Confirmed XI
40E. Motta(G)
3L. Pellegrini
13A. Romagnoli
34Mario Gila
77A. Marušić
26T. Bašić
6N. Rovella
7O. Dele-Bashiru
9Pedro
14T. Noslin
22M. Cancellieri
Inter
Confirmed XI
13Josep Martínez(G)
95A. Bastoni
15F. Acerbi
31Y. Bisseck
30Carlos Augusto
22H. Mkhitaryan
8P. Sučić
23N. Barella
17A. Diouf
10L. Martínez
9M. Thuram
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lazio
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Inter
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lazio-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Inter+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Lazio · Home
1.59points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-6-4
- Scored
- 1.47
- Conceded
- 1.24
Inter · Away
2.24points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 12-2-3
- Scored
- 1.94
- Conceded
- 0.94
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Lazio | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Cremonese | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H | W 2–0 AW 4–1 H |
| Udinese | D 3–3 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Napoli | W 2–0 AL 0–2 H | D 2–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Fiorentina | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Parma | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | W 2–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Bologna | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| AC Milan | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Sassuolo | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | W 5–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Torino | L 0–2 AD 3–3 H | D 2–2 AW 5–0 H |
| Cagliari | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Juventus | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | W 3–2 HL 3–4 A |
| Genoa | W 3–2 HW 3–0 A | W 2–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Lecce | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Como | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A | W 4–3 AW 4–0 H |
| Verona | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Pisa | D 0–0 A | W 6–2 HW 2–0 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 H | W 5–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Points | 51 of 102 · 1.50 per game | 79 of 102 · 2.32 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 Lazio wins2 draws5 Inter wins
Goals per game1.22 – 2.22
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 9 Nov 2025Inter2–0Lazio
- 18 May 2025Inter2–2Lazio
- 16 Dec 2024Lazio0–6Inter
- 19 May 2024Inter1–1Lazio
- 17 Dec 2023Lazio0–2Inter
- 30 Apr 2023Inter3–1Lazio
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lazio | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 2.34 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.97 | 0.89 | |
| Match goals | 2.09 | 3.23 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 54% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 37% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 46% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 49% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 6% | |
| Games | 35 | 35 |
| Lazio | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lazio | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.03 | 6.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.94 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 7.97 | 8.97 | 8.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 15/31 | 60% 21/35 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 9/31 | 51% 18/35 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 4/31 | 43% 15/35 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.69 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.63 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 4.83 | 3.40 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 25/35 | 31% 11/35 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 20/35 | 20% 7/35 | |
| Lazio | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 8.55 | 8.90 | 8.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.50 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Rosario Abisso Italy · 52 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.23league 3.70
Red cards0.33league 0.18
Cards 5+50%league 35%
Fouls24.8league 24.8
Penalties0.35league 0.28
Home wins29%league 40%
Lazio6 with this referee
Record3-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against3 · 0
- L1 Mar 26A · Torino0–21
- D23 Sep 23H · Monza1–12
- W19 Feb 23A · Salernitana2–01
- W23 Oct 22A · Atalanta2–02
- W15 Jan 22A · Salernitana3–03
Inter2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W6 Dec 24H · Parma3–11
- W30 Sep 23A · Salernitana4–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lazio34 games · scored 37 · conceded 33
5
4
0-15
4
6
16-30
4
4
31-45
6
7
46-60
4
6
61-75
14
6
76-90
Inter35 games · scored 82 · conceded 31
11
2
0-15
10
4
16-30
13
8
31-45
14
2
46-60
15
4
61-75
19
11
76-90
Lazio9 games · scored 11 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 21 · conceded 12
2
0-15
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
6
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
