Lazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lazio were clear favourites.
Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 24). Lazio had 13.9 days of rest, Lecce 15.1 and had to travel 504 km.
Away travel504 kmRest days13.9 · 15.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
Lazio64%
Draw22%
Lecce14%
Lazio67%
Draw20%
Lecce13%
Lazio65%
Draw22%
Lecce13%
Lazio57%
Draw25%
Lecce18%
Lazio66%
Draw21%
Lecce14%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAlberto Ruben Arena
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 6
Team strength
Lazio
Lecce
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
53
AttackIn forecast
36
63
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLecce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LazioLecce
1.18
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.73
0.82
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.27
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
0.74
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
45%
Scored inContext
55%
55%
Clean sheetsContext
45%
9.91
ShotsContext
9.82
3.55
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
36%
On target shareContext
31%
6.18
Shots in the boxContext
5.18
58%
Box shareContext
56%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
1.20
OffsidesContext
1.38
13.45
Shots allowedContext
11.45
4.64
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.45
BlocksContext
2.91
3.82
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.73
82%
Save rateContext
68%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
443
PassesContext
342
376
Accurate passesContext
264
85%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.72
10.73
FoulsContext
12.36
17.82
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
1.55
Yellow cardsContext
1.64
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
0.78
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
50%
Scored inContext
60%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.50
ShotsContext
10.10
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
36%
On target shareContext
33%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
5.20
59%
Box shareContext
54%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
1.25
OffsidesContext
1.29
12.90
Shots allowedContext
12.10
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.60
BlocksContext
3.10
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
84%
Save rateContext
67%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
457
PassesContext
347
388
Accurate passesContext
269
85%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.73
10.70
FoulsContext
12.30
18.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lazio
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km957 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lecce
Rest15.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel504 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lazio |
Lecce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.9Serie A 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 15.1Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 504 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 957 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lazio
Confirmed XI
94I. Provedel(G)
3L. Pellegrini
13A. Romagnoli
34Mario Gila
77A. Marušić
26T. Bašić
32D. Cataldi
8M. Guendouzi
10M. Zaccagni
19B. Dia
18G. Isaksen
Lecce
Confirmed XI
30W. Falcone(G)
25A. Gallo
44Tiago Gabriel
4E. Gaspar
17Danilo Veiga
29L. Coulibaly
20Y. Ramadani
23R. Sottil
10M. Berisha
7Tete Morente
22F. Camarda
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lazio
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lecce
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lazio-0.7 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Lecce+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Lazio · Home
2.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.80
Lecce · Away
1.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Lazio | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Atalanta | D 0–0 A | L 1–4 A |
| Genoa | W 3–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Sassuolo | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Verona | W 4–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 10 of 15 · 2.00 per game | 3 of 15 · 0.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Lazio wins1 draws3 Lecce wins
Goals per game1.17 – 1.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets17% · 17%
- 25 May 2025Lazio0–1Lecce
- 21 Dec 2024Lecce1–2Lazio
- 14 Jan 2024Lazio1–0Lecce
- 20 Aug 2023Lecce2–1Lazio
- 12 May 2023Lazio2–2Lecce
- 4 Jan 2023Lecce2–1Lazio
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lazio | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.18 | 0.73 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.82 | 1.27 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 55% | 45% | |
| Over 2.5 | 27% | 36% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 9% | 36% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 55% | 45% | |
| Failed to score | 55% | 45% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Lazio | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.20 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 40% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lazio | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 5.18 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 4.91 | |
| Match total | 7.78 | 10.09 | 8.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.64 | 1.64 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.91 | 1.91 | |
| Match total | 4.55 | 3.55 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 8/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 55% 6/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Lazio | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 7.78 | 10.10 | 8.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.40 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alberto Ruben Arena Italy · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.94
Red cards0.17league 0.13
Cards 5+0%league 41%
Fouls22.2league 26.2
Penalties0.17league 0.30
Home wins17%league 36%
LazioNo previous matches with this referee.
LecceNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lazio11 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
1
76-90
Lecce11 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
6
61-75
3
2
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 13 · conceded 7
4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
6
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
