Lazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lazio were clear favourites.
Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Monza. Lazio were without A. Marušić. Lazio had 21.8 days of rest, Monza 22.8 and had to travel 486 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel486 kmRest days21.8 · 22.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Lazio64%
Draw20%
Monza16%
Lazio73%
Draw17%
Monza10%
Lazio65%
Draw19%
Monza15%
Lazio57%
Draw22%
Monza21%
Lazio64%
Draw19%
Monza16%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 2–0
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
25°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 7 km/h
- Humidity 52%
RefereeGuiseppe Collu
Team strength
Lazio
Monza
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
53
AttackIn forecast
34
63
DefenceIn forecast
26
88
Form indexContext
24
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMonza
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LazioMonza
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
100%
Scored inContext
100%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.60
ShotsContext
13.60
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
32%
On target shareContext
43%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
58%
Box shareContext
75%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
4.75
13.00
Shots allowedContext
11.80
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.60
BlocksContext
3.00
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
84%
Save rateContext
57%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
430
PassesContext
384
369
Accurate passesContext
314
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.65
13.40
FoulsContext
12.80
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.30
ShotsContext
11.50
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
39%
On target shareContext
41%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
61%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.14
OffsidesContext
3.56
12.80
Shots allowedContext
13.20
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.00
BlocksContext
3.00
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
74%
Save rateContext
58%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
461
PassesContext
432
403
Accurate passesContext
368
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.71
13.20
FoulsContext
10.20
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lazio
WWWDW
Rest21.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 88 · 13 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +5.0 vs expected
Monza
LLDLW
Rest22.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel486 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 24 · 4 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lazio |
Monza |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21.8Serie A 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 22.8Serie A 2026-2027, 18 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 486 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lazio
Confirmed XI
35C. Mandas(G)
17Nuno Tavares
25Oliver Provstgaard
5D. Doekhi
15R. Floriani Mussolini
24K. Taylor
21R. Belahyane
16D. Frattesi
10M. Zaccagni
14T. Noslin
11G. Isaksen
Monza
Confirmed XI
1N. Törnqvist(G)
44A. Carboni
3L. Lucchesi
60E. Kouadio
7Ricardo Mangas
14E. Akinsanmiro
90M. Folorunsho
19S. Birindelli
22E. Zeballos
16C. Ngonge
9Gustavo Varela
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lazio
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −7.1% · Defence line −18.2% of weighted minutes
- DEF A. Marušić Starter 6.57 Def −10.9%
- MID D. Cataldi Rotation 6.90 Att −3.7% Def −1.8%
- DEF L. Pellegrini Rotation 6.58 Def −3.0%
- DEF Patric Rotation 6.68 Def −1.5%
- MID N. Rovella Rotation 6.86 Att −1.4% Def −0.7%
- ATT A. Guðmundsson Rotation 6.82 Att −2.1%
Monza
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes
3 without recent minutes (no impact): I. Touré, J. Ziółkowski, M. Pessina
Total impact vs full squads
- Lazio-1.0 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Monza+0.8 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Lazio · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Monza · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Lazio | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese | W 2–1 A | L 2–3 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
4 Lazio wins2 draws0 Monza wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 9 Feb 2025Lazio5–1Monza
- 10 Nov 2024Monza0–1Lazio
- 4 May 2024Monza2–2Lazio
- 23 Sep 2023Lazio1–1Monza
- 2 Apr 2023Monza0–2Lazio
- 10 Nov 2022Lazio1–0Monza
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lazio | Monza | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 4.00 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 100% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Lazio | Monza | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 4.00 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lazio | Monza | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.20 | 9.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 4.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 3.20 | 3.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 5/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 4/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Lazio | Monza | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 4.63 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 8.38 | 9.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.30 | 3.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Lazio5 games · scored 8 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
Monza5 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
Monza10 games · scored 11 · conceded 24
5
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
7
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
