Lazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lazio were slight favourites.
Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 30). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lazio. Lazio had 13.2 days of rest, Parma 14.2 and had to travel 368 km.
Away travel368 kmRest days13.2 · 14.2Matches / 14d1 · 0
Lazio59%
Draw26%
Parma16%
Lazio59%
Draw23%
Parma18%
Lazio59%
Draw26%
Parma15%
Lazio52%
Draw28%
Parma20%
Lazio60%
Draw24%
Parma16%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 42%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMatteo Marcenaro
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 46
Team strength
Lazio
Parma
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
53
AttackIn forecast
20
63
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LazioParma
1.03
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
0.93
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.27
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
53%
Scored inContext
53%
47%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
10.87
ShotsContext
10.77
3.97
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.07
35%
On target shareContext
26%
6.59
Shots in the boxContext
6.25
58%
Box shareContext
55%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
1.59
OffsidesContext
1.70
13.20
Shots allowedContext
13.73
4.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.53
BlocksContext
4.03
3.23
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.07
78%
Save rateContext
69%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
478
PassesContext
362
411
Accurate passesContext
292
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.75
9.90
FoulsContext
11.03
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.63
1.97
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
0.67
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
50%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.30
ShotsContext
11.10
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
33%
On target shareContext
24%
5.90
Shots in the boxContext
5.78
56%
Box shareContext
49%
10%
ConversionContext
6%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.30
Shots allowedContext
12.80
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.80
BlocksContext
3.70
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
69%
Save rateContext
60%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
491
PassesContext
411
427
Accurate passesContext
346
87%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.71
8.30
FoulsContext
12.10
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lazio
Rest13.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km609 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Parma
Rest14.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel368 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lazio |
Parma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.2Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Mar | 14.2Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 368 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 609 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lazio
Confirmed XI
40E. Motta(G)
17Nuno Tavares
25Oliver Provstgaard
13A. Romagnoli
77A. Marušić
24K. Taylor
32D. Cataldi
7O. Dele-Bashiru
9Pedro
27D. Maldini
18G. Isaksen
Parma
Confirmed XI
31Z. Suzuki(G)
5L. Valenti
39A. Circati
15E. Delprato
14E. Valeri
16L. Keita
41H. Nicolussi
10Adrián Bernabé
27Sascha Britschgi
7Gabriel Strefezza
9Mateo Pellegrino
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lazio
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Parma
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lazio-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Parma+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Lazio · Home
1.67points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-4
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.13
Parma · Away
1.33points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-5
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Lazio | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 AL 1–3 H |
| AC Milan | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Sassuolo | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Torino | L 0–2 AD 3–3 H | L 1–4 AW 2–1 H |
| Cagliari | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H |
| Juventus | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A |
| Genoa | W 3–2 HW 3–0 A | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Lecce | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Como | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Verona | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Fiorentina | D 2–2 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Napoli | L 0–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Udinese | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Cremonese | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Inter | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Pisa | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 40 of 87 · 1.38 per game | 34 of 87 · 1.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Lazio wins1 draws1 Parma wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 13 Dec 2025Parma0–1Lazio
- 28 Apr 2025Lazio2–2Parma
- 1 Dec 2024Parma3–1Lazio
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lazio | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.03 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.93 | 1.27 | |
| Match goals | 1.97 | 1.97 | 2.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 27% | 33% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 23% | 40% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 47% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 47% | 47% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Lazio | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.30 | 2.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lazio | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 3.96 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.96 | 4.27 | |
| Match total | 7.85 | 8.23 | 8.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 12/27 | 38% 10/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 8/27 | 31% 8/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 3/27 | 27% 7/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.00 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 22/30 | 67% 20/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 19/30 | 40% 12/30 | |
| Lazio | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 5.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 7.70 | 8.25 | 8.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.00 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matteo Marcenaro Italy · 46 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.85league 3.75
Red cards0.30league 0.19
Cards 5+65%league 35%
Fouls23.8league 25.1
Penalties0.24league 0.30
Home wins57%league 40%
Lazio3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.7
Pens for · against1 · 2
- L22 Sep 24A · Fiorentina1–24
- W30 Oct 23H · Fiorentina1–03
- W2 Apr 23A · Monza2–02
Parma1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L24 Aug 25A · Juventus0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lazio29 games · scored 29 · conceded 27
4
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
7
46-60
4
6
61-75
10
4
76-90
Parma30 games · scored 21 · conceded 38
2
7
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
6
46-60
4
8
61-75
7
9
76-90
Lazio9 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 7 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
