Lazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lazio were slight favourites.
Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 38). Absences weigh more on Lazio. Lazio had 4.8 days of rest, Torino 4.9 and had to travel 526 km.
Away travel526 kmRest days4.8 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Lazio54%
Draw26%
Torino20%
Lazio56%
Draw24%
Torino20%
Lazio55%
Draw25%
Torino19%
Lazio47%
Draw27%
Torino26%
Lazio55%
Draw24%
Torino21%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Piccinini
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 47
Team strength
Lazio
Torino
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
53
AttackIn forecast
39
63
DefenceIn forecast
47
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTorino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LazioTorino
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.40
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.52
40%
Scored inContext
40%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.40
ShotsContext
10.60
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
32%
On target shareContext
40%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
70%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
4%
1.25
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.00
Shots allowedContext
16.00
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.20
BlocksContext
3.80
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
83%
Save rateContext
60%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
445
PassesContext
342
379
Accurate passesContext
277
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.64
11.60
FoulsContext
13.20
17.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.30
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.63
60%
Scored inContext
30%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.10
ShotsContext
11.70
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
31%
On target shareContext
31%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
68%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
3%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.88
11.10
Shots allowedContext
13.20
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
2.20
BlocksContext
2.89
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
72%
Save rateContext
66%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
473
PassesContext
376
408
Accurate passesContext
309
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.71
11.20
FoulsContext
12.00
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lazio
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km804 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Torino
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel526 km420 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lazio |
Torino |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.8Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Sep | 4.9Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 526 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 804 km | 420 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.1 | 14.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lazio
Confirmed XI
94I. Provedel(G)
17Nuno Tavares
13A. Romagnoli
34Mario Gila
23E. Hysaj
26T. Bašić
32D. Cataldi
9Pedro
19B. Dia
22M. Cancellieri
11V. Castellanos
Torino
Confirmed XI
81F. Israel(G)
23Saúl Coco
13G. Maripán
61A. Tamèze
20V. Lazaro
10N. Vlašić
32K. Asllani
22C. Casadei
16M. Pedersen
18G. Simeone
26C. Ngonge
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lazio
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Torino
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lazio-1.1 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Torino+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Lazio · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Torino · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Lazio | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Lazio wins4 draws1 Torino wins
Goals per game1.25 – 0.75
Over 2.513%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets38% · 25%
- 31 Mar 2025Lazio1–1Torino
- 29 Sep 2024Torino2–3Lazio
- 22 Feb 2024Torino0–2Lazio
- 27 Sep 2023Lazio2–0Torino
- 22 Apr 2023Lazio0–1Torino
- 20 Aug 2022Torino0–0Lazio
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lazio | Torino | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 60% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Lazio | Torino | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 60% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lazio | Torino | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 9.75 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.20 | 3.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Lazio | Torino | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.13 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 9.13 | 8.22 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 2.80 | 3.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Piccinini Italy · 47 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.11league 3.65
Red cards0.19league 0.14
Cards 5+43%league 37%
Fouls24.5league 25.7
Penalties0.28league 0.25
Home wins43%league 39%
Lazio6 with this referee
Record2-3-1
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D10 Mar 25H · Udinese1–12
- W27 Oct 24H · Genoa3–03
- D20 Aug 22A · Torino0–05
- W12 Feb 22H · Bologna3–02
- D2 Dec 21H · Udinese4–43
Torino6 with this referee
Record3-2-1
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 2
- D1 Feb 25A · Atalanta1–13
- L21 Dec 24H · Bologna0–20
- W4 Dec 23H · Atalanta3–02
- D20 Aug 22H · Lazio0–00
- W2 Apr 22A · Salernitana1–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lazio5 games · scored 7 · conceded 4
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
Torino5 games · scored 2 · conceded 10
0-15
2
16-30
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
61-75
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
4
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 3 · conceded 18
2
0-15
3
16-30
6
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
